What Does a Capped Census Value Leave Out of a Del Mar Price Picture? Reading the Sold Prices, the Seasonal Homes and the Owners

What does the Census cap hide, and what do the sale pages show instead?

The Census publishes a median owner value of $2,000,001 for the postal area. The figure is a cap. When the true median is at or above the top category, the survey reports the top of the scale plus one dollar, so the real median is at least $2,000,001 and could be well above it. The same is true of the median gross rent of $3,501, which is the cap on rent. Neither number is a measure of value. The brief uses neither and says so.

The sale pages fill the gap, with limits. Redfin's median sale price is $3,099,300 for the three months ending June 2026. Realtor.com's median sold price is $2,867,000 and its median listing price is $3,995,000, both as of May 2026. Realtor.com's page is the oldest of the two by one month, taking the end of Redfin's window as June. Redfin's median is 8.1% above Realtor.com's sold median, taking Realtor.com as the base, and Realtor.com's listing median is 28.9% above Redfin's sale median, taking Redfin as the base.

The year-on-year changes point in different directions. Redfin's median is up 8.2%, which implies about $2,864,418 a year before. Realtor.com's sold median is up 5.72% on the year, which implies about $2,711,880, and up 10.27% on three years, which implies about $2,599,982. Its listing median is up 14.18% on the year, which implies about $3,498,861, and down 3.09% on three years, which implies about $4,122,382. A listing median that is up on the year and down on three years is a sign of swings.

Price per square foot is less steady still. Redfin shows about $1,440, down 3.0% on the year, which implies about $1,485 a year before. Realtor.com shows $1,367 for listings, down 18.34% on the year, which implies about $1,674, and down 2.91% on three years, which implies about $1,408. A fall of that size in a listing price per square foot, while the listing median rose 14.18%, is flagged as an implausible pair and is not relied on. It may reflect a change in the mix of homes listed.

The practical point for a seller is that no single figure in the table can be read as the value of a home. The Census cap removes the one source that covers every owner, and the sale pages cover only homes that sold or are for sale, over different periods. The reliable evidence is the closed sales of homes like the seller's, with the same size, view, age, lot and finish.

A seller reading these figures should avoid a common trap. A median listing price is the middle of what owners are asking, and many listings never sell at that figure. A median sale price is the middle of what buyers paid, but only for the homes that closed in the period, and in a month with a small number of sales it can move a long way. Neither describes a particular home. The only evidence that does is the closed sales of homes with the same size, view, age, lot, condition and finish, and those are what a seller should ask to see before setting a price.

Sources as cited. Earlier values and differences are computed from the published percentages.

What kinds of homes stand in Del Mar, and how many sit empty for part of the year?

Detached houses are the largest group. Of 6,670 units, 4,042, or 60.6%, are detached houses and 760, or 11.4%, are attached houses. Buildings of two units hold 37, three or four units hold 136, five to nine units hold 597, ten to nineteen hold 251, twenty to forty-nine hold 284 and fifty or more hold 548. Units in buildings of five or more total 1,680, or 25.2%. The Census also counts 15 mobile homes.

The stock is mostly older than 1980. Of 6,670 units, 258, or 3.9%, were built before 1940, 150 in the 1940s, 392 in the 1950s, 1,101 in the 1960s and 2,636 in the 1970s, the largest group at 39.5%. Another 1,212 were built in the 1980s, 366 in the 1990s, 263 in the 2000s, 209 in the 2010s and 83 in 2020 or later. Homes built before 1980 total 4,537, or 68.0%, and the median build year is 1975.

Vacancy is large, and its cause is the interesting part. Of 1,042 vacant units, 628 are held for seasonal, recreational or occasional use, 60.3% of vacant units and 9.4% of all units. Another 154 are for sale only, 83 are for rent, 82 are sold but not yet occupied and 95 are vacant for other reasons. Total vacancy is 15.6% of units.

The seasonal group says something about the neighborhood. Nearly a tenth of all units in the postal area are not anyone's main home. The Census does not say who holds them, how often they are used or whether they are rented out for short stays, and the brief draws no conclusion. What can be said is that a sale of such a home may involve an owner who lives elsewhere, and who may value a private process without showings that need local presence.

Age and view matter, though the Census cannot measure either. A seller should compare a home with others of the same decade, size and lot, and not with the postal-area medians, since the stock ranges from small older units to large houses. The brief makes no claim about any single home.

The mix of building types also matters for any median. Detached houses and units in larger buildings sit in the same postal area, and the sale pages count them together. A seller of a large house should not read a median that includes smaller units as a guide, and a seller of a unit in a larger building should not read it as a guide either. The sources give no median by home type, so the brief states none, and a seller should ask for sales of the same type.

Sources as cited. Shares are computed from the Census counts.

How fast do Del Mar homes sell, and what do sellers get against asking?

Redfin shows a median of 21 days on the market for the three months ending June 2026, one day fewer than a year before, and a compete score of 77, very competitive, with the average home selling about 1% below list and going pending in about 37 days. Realtor.com shows a median of 38 days for May 2026, up 5.56% on the year, which implies about 36 days a year before, and down 19.15% on three years, which implies about 47 days three years before.

The two pages measure differently and fall in different months, so the gap between 21 and 38 days is not a trend. Redfin's figure is for homes that sold in a three-month window, and Realtor.com's is for listings in one month. Both show a market that moves within about one to two months.

Sales settle near list. Redfin shows a sale-to-list ratio of 99.2%, up 2.1 points, with 28.6% of homes sold above list, up 13.0 points, and 24.4% of homes with price drops, down 15.2 points. Hot homes sell about 1% above list and go pending in about 13 days. Realtor.com says homes sold for approximately the asking price in May 2026, with a ratio of 99%, which agrees with Redfin's figure.

Supply is a little higher than a year ago. Realtor.com shows 79 active listings, up 3.66% on the year, which implies about 76 a year before, and up 37.10% on three years, which implies about 58. The same page shows the 37.10% figure beside a month-on-month label in one place and under a three-year column in another, so the brief reports the table version and flags the conflict. Redfin shows 50 homes sold, up 57.5% on the year, so sales rose as well.

A market where a typical sale takes one to two months and closes near list is a market where a well-priced home may not wait long. It does not mean every home sells fast, and the sources show medians and not the spread. A seller who wants certainty of date can choose a direct sale, which sets the closing date at the owner's choice. The brief does not claim a direct sale brings more.

The spread around the median matters as much as the median. Some homes sell in days, often with more than one offer, while others sit for months and then cut their price. The pages report medians and not the spread, so a seller with a fixed date cannot read the risk of a long wait from them. A better guide is the days on market of homes of the same kind sold in the last year, which an owner can ask for and compare with the page figures here.

Sources as cited. Earlier values are computed from the published percentages.

Who owns the homes in Del Mar, and how heavy is housing cost?

The population is 13,105, with a margin of error of 766. Of those, 2,284 are under 18, 17.4%, 492 are 18 to 24, 3.8%, 806 are 25 to 34, 6.2%, 1,515 are 35 to 44, 11.6%, 4,011 are 45 to 64, 30.6%, and 3,997 are 65 or older, 30.5%. The 45 to 64 and the 65 or older groups are nearly equal and together make up 61.1% of residents.

Of 5,628 occupied homes, 4,090, or 72.7%, are owned and 1,538, or 27.3%, are rented. Owners lean to larger homes: of 4,090, 1,547 have four bedrooms, 37.8%, 1,270 have three, 470 have two, 418 have five or more, 292 have one and 93 have none. Four or more bedrooms is 1,965 homes, or 48.0%. Renters lean to two bedrooms: of 1,538, 879 have two, 57.2%, 235 have one, 218 have three, 104 have none and 102 have four.

Owners are long settled. Of 4,090 owner homes, 46 were taken up in 2023 or later, 437 in 2020 to 2022, 1,297 in the 2010s, 704 in the 2000s, 488 in the 1990s and 1,118 before 1990. That puts 39.3% of owners in place since before 2000, and 11.8% arriving in 2020 or later. Renters turn over faster: of 1,538, 104 arrived in 2023 or later and 542 in 2020 to 2022, together 42.0% of renters.

Housing cost is heavy for some. Among owners with a mortgage, 2,687 homes have a computed share, and 933, or 34.7%, pay 30% or more of income on owner costs and 566, or 21.1%, pay half or more. Of owners without a mortgage, 1,392 have a computed share, and 217, or 15.6%, pay 30% or more, with 125, or 9.0%, paying half or more. Of renters, 1,493 have a computed share, and 569, or 38.1%, pay 30% or more, with 343, or 23.0%, paying half or more.

The median household income is $198,823, with a margin of error of $21,526. Realtor.com's median asking rent is $11,000, up 37.50% on the year, which implies about $8,000 a year before, and up 22.29% on three years, which implies about $8,995. It shows 75 rentals, down 16.09%, which implies about 89 a year before, and down 29.81% on three years, which implies about 107. A median of so few rentals is volatile, and since the Census rent is capped, the two cannot be compared.

The cost burden figures describe the neighborhood and not any one household. A share of income spent on housing depends on income, and the Census reports income for households of every kind, from retirees with no mortgage to renters with a lease. The brief does not link cost to income by tenure and makes no claim about why some owners spend a large share. For a seller, the main point is that owners here are mostly long settled and that nearly half have homes with four or more bedrooms. Readers comparing markets can also read the San Carlos brief and the Santa Rosa brief.

Sources as cited. Shares and ratios are computed from the Census counts.

What should a Del Mar owner ask before choosing a listing or a private sale?

A seller should keep four questions apart. What do closed sales of homes of the same size, view, age and lot show, given that the Census value is capped and the pages disagree? How long might a listing take, with a median of about one to two months and sales close to list? What would inspections and repairs cost on a home of this age? And what date does the owner need to close? The first question is about price, the second about time, the third about cost and the fourth about the next home.

For illustration only, a total commission of 1%, 3% or 5% on a sale of $450,000 would be $4,500, $13,500 or $22,500. On $725,000 it would be $7,250, $21,750 or $36,250, and on $1,200,000 it would be $12,000, $36,000 or $60,000. At Redfin's median sale price of $3,099,300, the same percentages come to $30,993, $92,979 and $154,965. These are arithmetic and not quoted rates, since commissions are negotiated.

The five benefits of a private sale to Maison Off-Market are privacy, because there are no showings and no neighbors talking about the sale, closing dates that can be flexible and give time to find a new home, no commission costs, no closing costs and no inspections or repairs. For an owner who keeps a seasonal home and lives elsewhere, a sale without showings may be especially convenient. The brief does not claim a private sale always beats a listing.

Maison Off-Market buys luxury homes and estates directly from their owners and speaks only to sellers. An owner who wants to see what a direct purchase would look like, with no public listing and no showings, can use the contact form below and ask for an offer before deciding.

Sources as cited. Fee figures are arithmetic and not quoted rates.

Methodology and limitations

Each page's date, title and place were read before use. The Redfin page's window is the three months ending June 2026 and the Realtor.com page has key indicators as of May 2026, so the Realtor.com page is the oldest source and is used with that flag. The Census median owner value of $2,000,001 and median gross rent of $3,501 are top-coded and are not used as medians. The Realtor.com price per square foot, down 18.34% on the year beside a listing median up 14.18%, is flagged as an implausible pair. The Realtor.com active listings change of 37.10% appears as a three-year figure in one table and as a month-on-month figure in another, and the table version is used. Realtor.com's neighborhood and community tables are not used. Only a city-level Zillow page was found, so no Zillow figure is used. The Census figures are five-year survey estimates with margins of error, and the postal area covers more than the town. Earlier values are computed from published percentages and are approximate. No figure here is a forecast.

Conclusion

The record for Del Mar, as far as the pages allow, is a postal area where the Census value is capped and cannot be used, where the sale pages differ by a wide margin, where nearly a tenth of all units are seasonal homes, where homes take about one to two months to sell near list, and where owners are long settled. For an owner, the practical step is to ask for the closed sales of homes of the same size, view and age, compare the cost and risk of a listing with a direct offer, and decide how much of the showing, inspection and timing risk to carry.