Is Victoria Park Falling or Rising? Reading a Listing Median That Dropped in March

Why do a listing median and a sold median point opposite ways?

The Realtor.com listing median of $959,000 is down 20.02% on the year, which implies a median of about $1,199,000 a year earlier. The Redfin sold median of $915,000 is up 3.3%, which implies about $885,800 a year earlier. A year before the pages were written, then, listings were asked at a median 35% above what sold. Now the gap is 4.8% the other way: the listing median is $44,000 above the sold median.

That is a large change for a neighborhood, and the likeliest explanation is a change in what is listed. Realtor.com's own page counts 156 homes for sale, and the neighborhood table shows that most are in Lake Ridge, where the median listing price is $862,500, with 65 homes. A year earlier, a larger share may have been the expensive houses of Hendricks and Venice Isles, where the median is $2,050,000. If a few big houses leave the market, the median of what remains falls without any home losing value.

Sale prices tell a different story because they count only what closed. The Redfin median covers three months, with 59 sales in August, and a handful of larger or smaller homes in that window can move it by a few percent. A rise of 3.3% on a three-month window is within what a change in mix can produce. This brief therefore treats neither number as a verdict on value.

The price per square foot shows the same split. Realtor.com has $478, down 7.72%, and Redfin $548, up 18.6%. The Redfin figure is 14.6% higher. The Redfin figure has the sold median of $915,000 divided by $548, which is about 1,670 square feet. The Realtor.com figures give about 2,006 square feet for the listing median. Homes that sell are smaller than homes that list, on this arithmetic, which is a reason for the price gap in dollars.

Source: Realtor.com and Redfin pages as cited. The $1,199,000, $885,800, 35%, 4.8%, $44,000, 14.6%, 1,670 and 2,006 square foot and 56 day figures are this brief's arithmetic from the stated figures. The reading of the change in mix is this brief's inference and is not a statement of either source. Commercial content; not independently verified.

Do 154 homes in a table add up to 156?

The Realtor.com page lists homes for sale in 13 named areas with a count above zero. They are Lake Ridge 65, Hendricks and Venice Isles 48, Waverly at Las Olas Condominiums 11, Middle River Park 6, Las Olas Park 5, Pine Crest Village at Victoria Park Condominium 5, Victoria Courts 4, Gateway Park 3, Greens 2, Macarthur Park 2, and Central Park, Oak Ridge and Victoria Isles with 1 each. The sum is 154. The headline count is 156. Two homes sit in no named area, a gap of 1.3%.

That is a small gap, and it is the best match this series of briefs has found between a neighborhood table and a headline. It does not make the table a map of the neighborhood. Hendricks and Venice Isles is the second largest on the list with 48 homes, and the same name appears in the Las Olas Isles table, with 58 homes. The boundaries overlap, and a house can be counted on more than one page.

The table also shows how a neighborhood can hide a majority. Lake Ridge has 65 of the 154, 42.2%, and Hendricks and Venice Isles 48, 31.2%. Together they are 113 homes, 73.4%. The other 11 areas hold 41 homes. A median for the whole neighborhood is therefore mostly a median of two areas that differ by a factor of 2.4 in price: $862,500 against $2,050,000.

The price per foot widens the picture. Lake Ridge is $412 per foot, Hendricks and Venice Isles $764 and Waverly at Las Olas Condominiums $369. Dividing prices by those figures gives homes of about 2,090 square feet in Lake Ridge, 2,680 in Hendricks and Venice Isles and 1,340 in Waverly. Three kinds of home sit under one name, and a seller should know which one is theirs before reading any median.

Source: Realtor.com page as cited. The sum of 154, the 1.3%, 42.2%, 31.2%, 73.4%, 41 and 2.4 figures and the square foot estimates are this brief's arithmetic. Only six of the thirteen areas are shown in the table. The overlap with the Las Olas Isles table is this brief's observation from the two pages. Commercial content; not independently verified.

What does the wait tell a seller?

A median of 94 days on market is the figure on both pages, and it is up sharply on the Realtor.com page. The year-on-year rise of 67.86% implies about 56 days a year earlier, and the three-year rise of 59.32% implies about 59. The Redfin page gives 118 days a year earlier, which is a fall of 20.3% to 94. The two pages disagree on the past, and they agree on the present.

They may count from different starting points. Redfin says that a home sells after 94 days on the market and also that homes go pending in about 110 days, with other lines in its page that give 53, 66 and 58 for the faster homes. A home that goes pending has an accepted offer and has not closed. The word wait therefore covers several clocks, and the one that matters to an owner is the one from first showing to money in hand.

The Realtor.com page gives a sale-to-list ratio of 94%, with homes selling 5.86% below the asking price. On a listing at the neighborhood median of $959,000, that is about $56,200. Redfin says that the average home sells about 6% below the list price, which on its sold median of $915,000 is about $54,900. The two pages give the same price cut within a fifth of a percentage point, which is the one close agreement between them.

Lake Ridge, the largest area, shows a median wait of 78 days, 16 days below the neighborhood figure. This again shows that the neighborhood median is pulled up by the larger and more expensive homes, which take longer to sell. An owner in Lake Ridge can reasonably expect a wait closer to eleven weeks than to fourteen, if the page is right. An owner in the island section should plan for longer.

Source: Realtor.com and Redfin pages as cited. The 56, 59, 20.3%, $56,200, $54,900 and 16 day figures and the eleven and fourteen week conversions are this brief's arithmetic. The point about clocks is this brief's reasoning and not a statement of either source. Commercial content; not independently verified.

What does the Census add about the people who live there?

The postal area that includes Victoria Park has 19,503 residents and 14,581 housing units, of which 11,403 are occupied. The median household income is $124,812. The owner-estimated median home value is $884,800, which is 7.1 times the median income, and the Realtor.com listing median of $959,000 is 7.7 times it. The Redfin sold median of $915,000 is 7.3 times it. By any of the three, a typical home costs more than seven years of a typical household income.

The Census value is 3.4% below the Redfin sold median and 7.7% below the Realtor.com listing median. The Census figure carries a margin of error of $138,545, 15.7% of the estimate, so the three numbers are within each other's reach. Nobody should read the order of the three as a ranking of accuracy. They measure different things: what owners think their homes are worth, what buyers paid and what sellers ask.

The Census median gross rent is $2,568, and the Realtor.com median rent is $2,497, 2.8% lower. At $2,497 a month the yearly rent is $29,964, which is 3.1% of the listing median and 3.3% of the sold median. Those are low yields before any cost, and the price has to rise for a landlord to do well. This brief draws no conclusion from them, and it does not know what any owner pays.

The age of the stock is the last cut. The Census counts 1,577 homes from the 1970s, 1,028 from the 1950s and 797 from the 1960s, and 4,347 homes, 29.8%, from before 1980. At the other end, 9,540 homes, 65.4%, date from 2000 or later. The median year built is 2006. Houses in Lake Ridge are likely to be in the older group, and new towers in the newer one, but the Census does not draw that line by neighborhood.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020-2024, Realtor.com and Redfin as cited. Multiples, shares, yields and gaps are this brief's arithmetic. The remark on Lake Ridge and towers is this brief's reasoning and not a statement of the Census.

Which page should an owner trust?

Neither page is wrong, and neither is complete. The older Realtor.com page has the advantage of detail: it names areas, counts homes in each and gives a price per foot for the three largest. The newer Redfin page has the advantage of date and of counting sales, which are what buyers actually paid. An owner gets the best view by taking the structure from the first and the direction from the second.

Start with the area. If the home is in Lake Ridge, the relevant figures are $862,500 as a listing median, $412 per foot and 78 days, with 65 homes competing. If it is on the islands, the figures are $2,050,000, $764 and a stock of 48. If it is in a condominium building, the Waverly line of $495,000 and $369 is the nearest guide, with 11 homes for sale. The neighborhood medians of $959,000 and $915,000 describe none of these exactly.

Then look at the date. The Realtor.com page stops in March, and the Miami series show that the wait in the wider area grew from 74 days in March to 85 in July. If the same drift applies here, the 94 days on the older page may be low for the summer, and the 94 days on the newer page may be high for a home that is priced well. An owner should ask a buyer or an agent for sales in the last sixty days within a few streets, and treat any page as a starting point.

Finally, look at the price a buyer will see. A buyer will compare a home with the others listed, and with the sale price of similar homes. On both pages, homes sell about 6% below their asking price. A seller who lists at the full value they hope for should expect to be negotiated down by about that much, and one who lists lower to attract offers should know where they would stop. A direct offer removes that step, but it also removes the chance that a bidder pays more.

Source: Realtor.com and Redfin pages and the Miami series as cited. The reading of the two pages and the advice are this brief's general reasoning and do not value any home.

What does the Miami series add, and what should an owner ask?

The median days on market in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach area rose from 74 in March 2026 to 85 in July, an increase of 11 days or 14.9%. Victoria Park's 94 days is nine days above the July regional figure. Active listings fell from 43,929 in May to 41,277 in September (Realtor.com, active listings), a drop of 6.0%.

New listings fell from 10,664 in April to 8,974 in July (Realtor.com, new listings), a drop of 15.8%. Homes with a price cut fell from 10,942 in March to 8,810 in July (Realtor.com, price reduced listings), 21.2% of the 41,524 active homes in July. The regional median listing price was $499,000 in May and $490,000 in September (Realtor.com, median listing price), so the Victoria Park listing median is 1.96 times it.

An owner can test any offer, public or private, with plain questions. What is the price, and is any part of it conditional on an inspection, a loan or the sale of another home? What will I take home after every charge? When will the sale close, and can that date move? Who pays for the repairs a buyer asks for after an inspection?

For a home in this neighborhood there are more. Is the house in a flood zone, and what do the insurance quotes say? What does the roof, the electrical system and the plumbing look like in a house built before 1980, which is the case for three in ten homes in the postal area? For a condominium, what are the dues, the reserves and any special assessment? If the sale takes three months, how much does an owner pay in taxes, insurance and upkeep before it closes? Readers comparing markets can also read the Las Olas brief and the Hyde Park brief.

Source: Realtor.com series published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis as cited. The 11 day, 14.9%, nine day, 6.0%, 15.8%, 21.2% and 1.96 figures are this brief's arithmetic. The questions are this brief's general reasoning and not statements of any source.

What does a private sale change?

Maison Off-Market buys homes directly from their owners. It does not list a home, hold showings or put a home on a public listing. For a Victoria Park owner, the five benefits are plain. There are no showings and no neighbors talking about the sale. The closing date can be flexible, which gives time to find a new home. There are no commission costs and no closing costs for the seller, and there are no inspections and repairs.

A little arithmetic shows what that is worth. Each 1% of a $915,000 sale is $9,150. A seller who gives up 3% gives up $27,450, and one who gives up 5% gives up $45,750. At the Realtor.com listing median of $959,000, each 1% is $9,590. This brief does not claim that those are the costs of any sale, since the real figures depend on the agreement the seller signs. It shows how quickly a percentage becomes a sum.

The same arithmetic applies to time. If the median home waits 94 days and then sells about 6% below its list price, the seller has lost three months and about $55,000 against the asking price before any other cost. A seller who values a date they pick, and a sale that no neighbor sees, may prefer a direct offer even at a lower headline price. A seller who values the chance of a higher bid may prefer a public listing.

Maison Off-Market speaks only to sellers. An owner who wants to know what a direct offer would look like can use the contact form below, or call 401-219-4207, and ask for a figure with no showings, no listing and no obligation.

Source: Maison Off-Market. The fee and time figures are this brief's arithmetic from the stated numbers and are not claims about any sale.

Methodology and limitations

Prices, price per square foot, days on market, listing and rental counts and the neighborhood tables come from a national listing site page with figures as of March 2026 and charts to February. Sale prices, sales counts and competition ratings come from a second brokerage page for the three months to August 2026. The two pages cover different months, count different things and are not independently verified.

Age, tenure, vacancy, income, rent and owner-estimated value come from the American Community Survey 2020-2024 five-year estimates for the postal-code area that includes Victoria Park. Shares are calculated from published counts, and owner-estimated value carries a margin of error.

Days on market, active and new listings, median listing price and price reduced counts are Realtor.com series published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis for the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach metropolitan area. They describe the region and not the neighborhood. The brief makes no forecast and values no home.

Conclusion

The Victoria Park record shows a listing median down 20% in March and a sold median up 3.3% in August, the same 94 day wait on both pages and a neighborhood table that comes within two homes of the headline count. It points to a change in which homes are listed more than to a change in value.

It does not fix a price for any one home. The choice between a public listing and a private sale comes down to whether an owner would rather compete in a market of 156 listings or take privacy, a flexible closing date, no commission, no closing costs and no inspections or repairs. To see what a direct offer would look like for your home, use the contact form below or call 401-219-4207.