Is the Cape Coral Market Rising or Falling When Redfin and Zillow Disagree? Reading the Price Gap, the Supply Swing and the Seasonal Homes

Why do the Cape Coral price sources disagree by so much?

Redfin shows a median sale price of $399,827, up 17.6%, which implies about $339,989 a year earlier. Realtor.com shows a median sold price of $340,000, down 8.71%, which implies about $372,439 a year earlier, and down 11.40% in three years, which implies about $383,747. Zillow's city index of $335,825 is down 3.9%, which implies about $349,454. So the Redfin median has risen from about $339,989 to $399,827 while Realtor.com's has fallen from about $372,439 to $340,000, and the year-earlier values are not even close.

A rise of 17.6% and a fall of 8.71% cannot both describe the same homes. Several things could explain it, none of which can be confirmed from the pages. The periods differ, June against the three months to August. The sets of homes differ, for example if new construction or canal-front homes are in one count more than in the other. These are possibilities and not findings.

Realtor.com's listing median of $439,300 is down 1.19%, which implies about $444,591 a year earlier, and down 13.80% in three years, which implies about $509,629. It is 29.2% above its sold median, computed here. Price per foot on Realtor.com is $271, down 2.02%, which implies about $277 a year earlier, and down 14.87% in three years, which implies about $318. All of Realtor.com's figures point down over three years, which is a consistent story.

Redfin's price per foot of $231, up 19.1%, implies about $194 a year earlier. A rise that large, with a price rise of 17.6%, suggests that the homes sold were about the same size as a year before, so the rise would be a rise in price for like homes. Yet Zillow shows the city down 3.9%. The most cautious reading is that prices moved within a narrow range, with a small group of sales pulling Redfin's median up.

The Census gives a floor and a ceiling. The median owner value of $383,000, plus or minus $16,900, is 4.2% below Redfin's median and 12.6% above Realtor.com's sold median, both computed here. It is 5.4 times the median household income of $71,190, and Redfin's median is 5.6 times. Income here is modest, which is consistent with a large retired population, and which limits how much local buyers can pay.

What should an owner do with figures that conflict this much? The first step is to refuse to average them. A midpoint of $399,827 and $340,000 describes no real home and no real sale. The second step is to look for the cause by asking for a list of the closed sales behind any number a buyer or agent quotes, with the dates, sizes and addresses kept private between the parties. The third step is to weigh each source by its date, its coverage and its method, and to give the most weight to sales of homes most like the owner's own, in the same part of the city and of the same age.

Sources as cited. Ratios and year-earlier values in this section are computed from the published figures and percentages.

How much supply does Cape Coral have, and how hard do sellers bargain?

Supply is large. Realtor.com shows 695 active listings, down 20.72% in a year, which implies about 877 a year earlier, and up 38.89% in three years, which implies about 500. Against Redfin's 271 sales in August, 695 listings is 2.6 months of sales if the pace held, an inference that mixes a June listing count with an August sales count. A market with that much supply gives buyers a choice and gives sellers a reason to price carefully.

Redfin's figures describe a market in which sellers give way. The score is 32 out of 100, some homes get multiple offers, and the average home sells about 5% below list and goes pending in about 63 days. The sale-to-list ratio is 94.9%, and only 6.8% of homes sold above list, up 0.8 points, which implies about 6.0% a year earlier. Price drops affected 37.7% of homes, down 7.6 points, which implies about 45.3% a year earlier.

The pace has quickened. Redfin shows 60 days on market against 88 a year before, a fall of 31.8%, computed here, and sales rose from 214 to 271, up 26.5%. Realtor.com shows 81 days in June, down 18.75%, which implies about 100 a year earlier, and up 32.20% in three years, which implies about 61. Homes sell faster than a year ago and slower than three years ago, which fits a market that is recovering from a slowdown.

Rentals add a second source of supply. Realtor.com shows 237 rental properties, down 21.68% in a year, which implies about 303, and up 40% in three years, which implies about 169. The median rent of $1,947 is down 11.50% in a year, which implies about $2,200, and down 24.97% in three years, which implies about $2,595. Falling rents with growing rental supply tell landlords that tenants can bargain. The Census median rent is $1,710, plus or minus $84.

For a seller, the picture is a market with many choices for buyers, discounts from list and a share of homes that are cut. Hot homes still sell near list in about two weeks, so the best-priced homes move. The gap between those and the average home is the cost of mispricing. A seller who is unsure of the price may prefer a private buyer who has already decided.

Another way to read the supply figure is through the share of homes with price cuts. Redfin reports that 37.7% of homes had price drops, down 7.6 points from a year before. That means that fewer sellers are cutting than last year and that more than a third still do. A seller who prices correctly at the start has a better chance of being in the other group, and one who prices above the market usually learns the number from the market, a few weeks later and a few thousand dollars lower. The weeks are a cost in taxes, insurance and utilities that the seller carries.

Sources as cited. Year-earlier values and differences are computed from the published percentages.

How many Cape Coral homes are seasonal, rented or held by retirees?

Of 20,276 units, 5,013 are vacant, 24.7%. Of those, 3,691 are held for seasonal, recreational or occasional use, 73.6% of the vacant and 18.2% of all homes. Another 310 are for rent, 54 are rented and not yet occupied, 226 are for sale only, 78 are sold and not yet occupied and 654 are vacant for other reasons, 3.2% of all homes. So homes for sale are 1.5% of the stock at the survey's moments, and second homes are many times more.

Renters are a large group. Of 15,263 occupied homes, 11,755 are owner-occupied, 77.0%, and 3,508 are rented, 23.0%. Renters moved in recently: 278 in 2023 or later, 1,092 between 2020 and 2022, 1,952 between 2010 and 2019, 129 between 2000 and 2009 and 57 in the 1990s, so 39.1% arrived since 2020 and 94.7% since 2010. Of the 3,296 with a computed figure, 2,225 spent 30% or more of income on rent, 67.5%, and 1,182 spent half or more, 35.9%.

Owners are more settled. Of 11,755 owner households, 123 moved in during 2023 or later, 1.0%, 1,952 between 2020 and 2022, 16.6%, 5,532 between 2010 and 2019, 47.1%, 2,382 between 2000 and 2009, 20.3%, 1,172 in the 1990s, 10.0%, and 594 before 1990, 5.1%. So 17.7% arrived since 2020 and 64.7% since 2010. Most owners bought in the last fifteen years.

The population is older. Of 33,599 people counted, 4,084, or 12.2%, are under 18, 1,412, or 4.2%, are 18 to 24, 3,291, or 9.8%, are 25 to 34, 2,853, or 8.5%, are 35 to 44, 9,711, or 28.9%, are 45 to 64 and 12,248, or 36.5%, are 65 or older. The margin on the total is plus or minus 1,708. More than a third of residents are 65 or older, so many owners are in retirement and may weigh a move to be near family.

Owners carry moderate costs. Of 11,755 owners, 6,413 have a mortgage, 54.6%, and 5,342 do not, 45.4%. Among owners with a mortgage and a computed figure, 2,341 spent 30% or more of income on housing, 36.6%, and 1,059 spent half or more, 16.5%. Among owners without a mortgage, 1,171 of 5,281 spent 30% or more, 22.2%, and 507 spent half or more, 9.6%. Insurance and taxes weigh on owners with no loan, and the Census does not separate them.

One more point concerns timing. A household that spends winters in Florida and summers elsewhere may find that the quietest months are the best for a sale, since a private buyer can see the home without the crowds of the busy season. A listing during the winter months, when many homes are occupied and many buyers are in town, brings more showings and more disruption. The Census does not say where owners of seasonal homes live, so the choice is the owner's, and depends on personal calendars more than on any published figure.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020-2024 five-year estimates, tables B01001, B25003, B25004, B25038, B25070 and B25091, via Census Reporter. Shares are computed here.

What are Cape Coral homes like, and what do they need?

Most are detached houses. Of 20,276 units, 13,475, or 66.5%, are detached, 406, or 2.0%, are attached, 1,054, or 5.2%, are in two-unit buildings, 811, or 4.0%, in buildings of three or four units, 1,380, or 6.8%, in five to nine, 1,884, or 9.3%, in ten to nineteen, 909, or 4.5%, in twenty to forty-nine and 232, or 1.1%, in fifty or more. Another 125 are mobile homes. About two homes in three are single houses, and the rest are small and mid-sized buildings.

They are mostly from the 1960s to 1980s. Of 20,276 units, 13, or 0.1%, were built before 1940, 81, or 0.4%, in the 1940s, 207, or 1.0%, in the 1950s, 3,184, or 15.7%, in the 1960s, 5,803, or 28.6%, in the 1970s, 5,517, or 27.2%, in the 1980s, 2,077, or 10.2%, in the 1990s, 2,757, or 13.6%, in the 2000s, 445, or 2.2%, in the 2010s and 192, or 0.9%, in 2020 or later. The median build year is 1982, and 45.8% were built before 1980.

Homes are mid-sized. Of 11,755 owner households, 93 live in a home with no bedroom, 96 in a one-bedroom, 2,996 in a two-bedroom, 7,244 in a three-bedroom, 1,191 in a four-bedroom and 135 in one with five or more. Three-bedroom homes are 61.6% of owner homes and two-bedroom homes 25.5%. Renters live in smaller homes: 1,699 of 3,508, 48.4%, in a two-bedroom and 1,234, 35.2%, in a three-bedroom.

Homes built in the 1970s and 1980s are at the age when roofs, cooling systems, windows and plumbing reach the end of their life, and in a coastal county a buyer's inspector will also look at roofs, drainage, seawalls and docks on canal lots and at the insurance cost that follows. That is an inference from the age of the stock and the setting, not a finding from any source. A seller who expects such a list can price it in or look for a buyer who takes the home as it stands.

Flat land and canals make many lots alike on paper, and the pages cannot tell one from another. Two houses of the same size can differ by tens of thousands of dollars if one has water access, a newer roof or a pool. This is why the published medians are a rough guide, and why a closed sale of a house on a similar lot is worth more than any index. Readers comparing markets can also read the Rockledge brief and the Palma Ceia brief.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020-2024 five-year estimates, tables B25003, B25024, B25034 and B25042, via Census Reporter. Shares are computed here.

What should a Cape Coral owner ask before choosing a listing or a private sale?

Five questions are worth asking. Which price source applies to a home like mine, given that sources disagree by a wide margin? What will the buyer's inspector and insurer find in a home of this age near the water? How long can I carry the home while it sits? What do the fees cost? And what date do I need to close?

Fees are simple arithmetic, and no rate is assumed here. Each 1% of a $450,000 sale is $4,500, of a $725,000 sale is $7,250 and of a $1,200,000 sale is $12,000. Three percent is $13,500, $21,750 and $36,000, and five percent is $22,500, $36,250 and $60,000. On the Redfin median of $399,827, 1% is $3,998, 3% is $11,995 and 5% is $19,991. On Realtor.com's sold median of $340,000, 1% is $3,400, 3% is $10,200 and 5% is $17,000.

A private sale has no showings and no neighbors talking about it, which is the first benefit. For an owner of a second home, a quiet sale avoids a sign in a yard that is empty for months. The second benefit is a closing date that fits the seller, which helps an owner who needs time to move belongings or find the next home. The third and fourth are no commission costs and no closing costs, and the fifth is no inspection repairs.

In a market where the average home sells about 5% below list and over a third of homes see a price cut, an owner is right to compare a listing with a private offer. The comparison includes the expected price after fees, the weeks of waiting and the cost of carrying a home with taxes and insurance. Only the owner can supply those numbers.

Maison Off-Market buys luxury homes and estates directly from their owners and speaks only to sellers. It does not say that a private sale always beats a public listing. If you would like a private, no-obligation offer for a home in Cape Coral, call 401-219-4207 or use the contact form on this site.

Sources as cited. Fee illustrations are arithmetic only and assume no commission rate.

Methodology and limitations

Each page's date, title and place were read before use. The Redfin page is for the three months ending August 2026. The Realtor.com page carries key indicators as of June 2026, three months older, and its neighborhood tables name condominium buildings and a district, so only the area summary was used. The Zillow page is for the whole city and was updated on August 31, 2026. The sources conflict on both the level and the direction of prices, and the text says so and does not choose between them. Only established data publishers and the Census are cited. Percent changes were taken as printed, and ratios, sums, fee figures and year-earlier values are this brief's arithmetic.

Conclusion

The record for Cape Coral is a set of sources that disagree on whether prices are up by about a sixth or down by under a tenth, a large supply of homes, discounts from list and cuts on over a third of listings, and a stock in which nearly one home in five is held for seasonal use. The useful number for an owner is a closed sale of a comparable home nearby, and a private buyer can price the home as it stands and close on the owner's schedule.