Is Manhattan Beach Up or Down? Reading a Rising Sold Median

Can the sold median rise while the listing median falls?

It can, because the two medians describe different homes. The Realtor.com sold median of $3,500,000 is up 12% on the year, which implies about $3,125,000 a year earlier. The listing median of $4,274,500 is down 9.52%, which implies about $4,724,000 a year earlier. A year ago the typical listing was $1.6 million above the typical sale, and now it is $775,000 above. The gap has halved.

The price per square foot shows what moved. At $1,619 per foot, a listing at $4,274,500 is about 2,640 square feet, and a sale at $3,500,000 is about 2,160 square feet. If that price per foot applied to both, the homes on offer are about 22% larger than the homes that sold. Larger homes cost more, and they sit longer, so they pile up among the listings.

Redfin sees a smaller rise. Its three-month median sale price is $3,492,689, up 2.7%, with the price per square foot down 2.8% at $1,390. A median sale price that rises while the price per foot falls is the pattern of larger homes selling, and it fits the Realtor.com listing median. The 12% on Realtor.com is likely to include the same effect and a different window, since the two pages do not share a month.

The month on month figures add to the picture. Days on market rose 8.11% in the month to April, from about 37 days to 40, even as the year on year figure fell 11.11%. A page that shows a longer wait this month and a shorter wait than last year is describing a market in transition, and the direction can change within a season. Spring, summer and fall differ in the number of buyers and in the mix of homes that list, and a seller should read any single month as a sample.

For an owner, the useful reading is that a rise of 2.7% to 12% in the median does not mean a rise in the value of any one house. A house of 2,000 square feet that sells at $1,390 per foot brings about $2,780,000, and at $1,619 about $3,238,000. The difference of $458,000 is the spread between two pages' price per foot, and it is larger than most year-on-year changes.

Source: Realtor.com, Redfin and the Los Angeles area series as cited. The implied earlier values, $1.6 million, $775,000, 2,640 and 2,160 square feet, 22%, $2,780,000, $3,238,000 and $458,000 are this brief's arithmetic from the stated figures. The reading that larger homes explain the pattern is this brief's inference. Commercial content; not independently verified.

Are there 104 homes for sale, or 61?

Realtor.com's headline count is 104 homes for sale, down 8.18% on the year, and its page is dated April 2026 in one place and March 2026 in another. A local site that snapshots the MLS twice a month counted 61 active listings on August 31, 2026, down 23 on the same date a year earlier and down 14 on 2024. It counted 66 on May 31, down 30 on 2025 and down 19 on 2024. The two counts are for different months and may differ in what they include.

The local update's numbers imply 84 active listings a year earlier at the end of August and 75 two years earlier, and 96 and 85 at the end of May. The author calls it a chronic inventory deficit and says that the best year-on-year deficit since spring was 16 listings, at the end of June. Sales in 2026 are trending slightly higher, so fewer homes are being asked to serve as many buyers.

Redfin gives a view of the buyers. It counted 106 homes sold in August, up 21.4% on 87 a year earlier, and rated the market very competitive, with a compete score of 70. At 106 sales in a month, 61 listings are less than three weeks of supply. That is the arithmetic of a tight market, and the page's own words, many homes getting multiple offers, agree with it.

The listing detail in the local update gives a feel for the spread. Ten new listings in the last two weeks of August ranged from $1,701,000 for a four-bedroom house of 1,280 square feet to $5,750,000 for a four-bedroom house of 1,789 square feet, and their prices per foot ran from $1,033 to $3,214. A threefold spread in price per foot among ten homes in two weeks shows how much the street, the lot and the finish matter, and why a city median is a poor guide to a particular house.

The deficit is the seller's best fact and a warning. A buyer who finds few homes will pay for the right one, and a seller who prices well can sell fast. Hot homes, Redfin says, go pending in about 21 days at about 3% above list. A seller who prices too high loses that advantage, and the home joins the group that waits 40 days or more.

Source: Realtor.com, Redfin and a local MLS update as cited. The implied earlier counts of 84, 75, 96 and 85 and the three weeks of supply (61 against 106 a month, about 17 days) are this brief's arithmetic. The comparison of a snapshot count with Realtor.com's count is this brief's reading, since the sources cover different dates. Commercial content; not independently verified.

Does the table of areas add up to 104?

The Realtor.com neighborhood table lists homes for sale in twelve areas: North Redondo Beach 100, Playa del Rey 84, Sand Section 41, Tree Section 30, Eastside Manhattan Beach 24, Holly Glen 13, Ramona 12, North End 8, Hill Section 7, Ingledale Acres 5, Manhattan Village 2 and Downtown Manhattan Beach 1. The sum is 327. The headline count is 104. The table is 314% of the headline.

The two largest lines, North Redondo Beach with 100 and Playa del Rey with 84, are 184 homes, more than the whole headline on their own. The page does not explain why they appear. They are named for neighboring places, and the likeliest reading is that the page lists the areas around Manhattan Beach, as it does for nearby postal areas. Whatever the reason, a reader who adds up the column does not get the city's count.

The rentals show the same pattern. The table gives 114 rentals to Playa del Rey, 64 to North Redondo Beach, 38 to Ramona, 35 to Sand Section, 17 each to Tree Section and Eastside Manhattan Beach, 14 to Hill Section, 13 to North End, 7 to Ingledale Acres, 4 to Downtown and 1 to Holly Glen. The sum is 324, against a headline of 83.

The medians show a wider range inside the city. Sand Section is $5,972,500 at $2,320 per square foot, North End is $3,995,000 at $1,783, Eastside Manhattan Beach is $3,895,000 at $1,141 and Tree Section is $3,549,500 at $1,482. The Sand Section median is 1.7 times Tree Section's and 1.4 times the city's headline. A seller's section matters more than the city's median.

Source: Realtor.com page as cited. The sums of 327 and 324, the 314%, 184, 1.7 and 1.4 figures are this brief's arithmetic. The row for five other areas combines Holly Glen 13, Ramona 12, Ingledale Acres 5, Manhattan Village 2 and Downtown Manhattan Beach 1 (33 in all). The remark that the page lists surrounding areas is this brief's reading. Commercial content; not independently verified.

What does a rent up 52.94 percent mean?

Realtor.com reports a median rent of $13,000 a month, up 52.94% on the year, up 30.65% on three years and up 21.50% on the month. That implies a rent of about $8,500 a year earlier. A rise of more than half in a year is not the pattern of a stable market. It is the pattern of a small sample, with 83 rentals counted and a few very large homes in it.

The area figures are consistent with that. The Hill Section's median rent is $20,000 and the Sand Section's is $15,700, while Eastside Manhattan Beach is $5,950 and North End $5,750. Rents in the table range from $2,147 in Ramona to $20,000, a factor of 9. The Census median gross rent for the whole postal area is $3,449, about a quarter of the Realtor.com median, because the Census counts year-round leases at all sizes.

A yearly rent of $156,000 is 4.5% of the sold median of $3,500,000, before taxes, insurance, repairs and vacancy. A landlord of a Manhattan Beach house who weighs renting against selling has that figure to compare, and the rent could move by tens of percent either way with a few listings.

For a seller, the fact that rentals are up 20.21% in number suggests that some owners are renting out homes that they might have sold. That is a choice with its own work and its own risks. A direct sale ends them at closing.

Source: Realtor.com page and U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020-2024, as cited. The $8,500, factor of 9, $156,000 and 4.5% figures are this brief's arithmetic. The remarks on a small sample and on owners who rent are this brief's inference. Commercial content; not independently verified.

What does the Census say when its value is capped?

The postal area that includes Manhattan Beach has 34,210 residents and 15,281 housing units, of which 13,369 are occupied. Owners hold 8,662 of the occupied homes, 64.8%, and renters 4,707, 35.2%. There are 1,912 vacant homes, 12.5%. The median household income is $204,306.

The owner-estimated median home value is reported as $2,000,001, with no margin of error. That figure appears to be the survey's ceiling for very high values, which means that the true median is at or above $2 million and that the survey cannot say by how much. The Realtor.com sold median of $3,500,000 is at least 75% above the Census figure, and the listing median is at least 114% above it. The Census is not a guide to the price of a house here.

The stock is older than the prices suggest. The median year built is 1970, and 9,026 homes, 59.1%, were built before 1980. Homes from the 1950s number 3,416, 22.4% of the total. Homes built since 2010 number 1,081, 7.1%. A house of seventy years brings a roof, wiring, plumbing and foundation that may have been replaced or not, and a buyer's inspection will say which.

Many buyers of such houses plan to rebuild or to renovate heavily, which is why the price per square foot of a small, old house on a good street can be above that of a new one. A seller who knows that a buyer will not keep the house gains little from repairs, and a direct buyer who plans the work can pay for the land.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020-2024 and Realtor.com as cited. Multiples, shares and gaps are this brief's arithmetic (the 75% and 114% are minimums from the $2,000,001 figure). The remark that the Census value appears to be a ceiling and the remarks on rebuilding are this brief's reasoning and not statements of the Census.

What does the Los Angeles series add, and what should an owner ask?

In the Los Angeles area, active listings rose from 18,523 in May 2026 to 20,130 in September (Realtor.com, active listings), an increase of 8.7%. The median days on market rose from 47 to 55, an increase of 8 days or 17.0%. Price-reduced listings rose from 4,466 in April to 5,832 in August (Realtor.com, price reduced listings), an increase of 30.6%.

The region is softening while Manhattan Beach, by the local count, is tight. The regional median listing price was $1,100,000 in May and $1,097,000 in July (Realtor.com, median listing price). The city's listing median is about 3.9 times the region's. A local scarcity does not protect a seller from a regional turn, but it is a real cushion.

An owner can test any offer, public or private, with plain questions. What is the price, and is any part of it conditional on an inspection, a loan or the sale of another home? What will I take home after every charge? When will the sale close, and can the date move? Who pays for the repairs a buyer asks for?

In a market with a few sales and a wide spread, there are more. Which recent sales are true comparables for my section, my lot and my house? How many days did they wait, and did they close above or below the ask? Is my house priced for the first three weeks, when hot homes go pending, or for the 40-day average? What would I pay in taxes, insurance and upkeep if the sale takes another two months? Readers comparing markets can also read the Santa Rosa brief and the La Quinta brief.

Source: Realtor.com series published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis as cited. The 8.7%, 17.0%, 30.6% and 3.9 figures are this brief's arithmetic. The questions are this brief's general reasoning and not statements of any source.

What does a private sale change?

Maison Off-Market buys homes directly from their owners. It does not list a home, hold showings or put a home on a public listing. For a Manhattan Beach owner, the five benefits are plain. There are no showings and no neighbors talking about the sale. The closing date can be flexible, which gives time to find a new home. There are no commission costs and no closing costs for the seller, and there are no inspections and repairs.

A little arithmetic shows what that is worth. Each 1% of a $3,500,000 sale is $35,000. A seller who gives up 3% gives up $105,000, and one who gives up 5% gives up $175,000. This brief does not claim that those are the costs of any sale, since the real figures depend on the agreement the seller signs. It shows how quickly a percentage becomes a sum at these prices.

Privacy is the benefit that fits a small city where a listing is seen by every neighbor and every buyer's agent. A public listing shows the address, the photographs and the price, and a price cut shows as well. The date is the other benefit. A seller who is also buying can choose a closing sixty or ninety days out and move once.

Maison Off-Market speaks only to sellers. An owner who wants to see what a direct offer would look like can use the contact form below, or call 401-219-4207, and ask for a figure with no showings, no listing and no obligation.

Source: Maison Off-Market. The fee figures are this brief's arithmetic and not claims about any sale.

Methodology and limitations

Prices, price per square foot, days on market, listing and rental counts, rents and the neighborhood table come from a national listing site page with key indicators as of April 2026. Sale prices, sales counts and competition ratings come from a brokerage page for the three months to August 2026. Active listing counts for August and May come from a local MLS update dated September 3, 2026. The sources cover different months and are not independently verified.

Age, tenure, vacancy, income, rent and owner-estimated value come from the American Community Survey 2020-2024 five-year estimates for the postal-code area that includes Manhattan Beach. The reported value of $2,000,001 appears to be a ceiling. Shares are calculated from published counts.

Days on market, active listings, median listing price and price reduced counts are Realtor.com series published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis for the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim area. They describe the region and not the city. Implied earlier values and sizes are this brief's arithmetic. The brief makes no forecast and values no home.

Conclusion

The Manhattan Beach record shows a sold median up 12% beside a listing median down 9.52%, a count of 104 homes for sale on one page and 61 on another, and a table of areas that adds up to 327. It describes a small, tight market where mix decides the medians, and where the section and the size of a house matter more than the city's name.

It does not fix a price for any one home. The choice between a public listing and a private sale comes down to whether an owner would rather meet showings, inspections and a repair list or take privacy, a flexible closing date, no commission, no closing costs and no inspections or repairs. To see what a direct offer would look like for your home, use the contact form below or call 401-219-4207.