Why Does Arlington Show a Falling Sold Median on One Site and a Rising One on Another? Reading the Conflicting Medians, the Multiple Offers and the Detached Houses

Which Arlington price figure should an owner trust?

None alone. Redfin's median of $1,349,695, up 3.8%, implies about $1,300,284 a year earlier, and its price per square foot of $531, up 8.7%, implies about $489. Realtor.com's sold median of $1,180,000, down 15.71% in a year, implies about $1,399,929 a year earlier, and up 1.91% in three years implies about $1,157,884. The Redfin median is 14.4% above the Realtor.com sold median, and the two measure different windows, a quarter and a single month.

The two sold figures move in opposite directions. Redfin's median is up 3.8% and its per-foot price up 8.7%, while Realtor.com's sold median is down 15.71% and its listing per-foot price down 3.35%, which implies about $521 a year earlier. A single month with fewer large houses closing would lower a monthly median without any fall in prices, and a quarter that includes spring would raise it, so the difference may be about the window more than the market. The pages do not show the sales behind either figure.

The asking median is $1,295,000, down 3.18% in a year, implying about $1,337,534 a year earlier, and down 7.43% in three years, implying about $1,398,941. It is 9.7% above the Realtor.com sold median, and the Redfin sold median is 4.2% above it, so on the Redfin page homes closed above the asking median. Asking prices have fallen by more over three years than the sold median has changed, which can follow a change in what is listed.

The Zillow figure of $806,571, up 0.8%, implies about $800,170 a year before it was calculated, and it covers the whole of Arlington and a wide variety of housing types, so it is 40.2% below the Redfin median for this postal area of houses. The Census median owner value of $1,092,800, plus or minus $30,314, is an average of owners' own estimates over five years, and it is 5.4 times the median household income of $201,094, plus or minus $22,998. The Redfin median is 6.7 times that income.

The best guide is closed sales of similar houses on similar streets in the last few months. In a postal area where four in five homes are detached houses, those sales are the most useful comparison, and a seller should ask for the days on the market and the final price against list for each, and for the number of offers.

A seller reading a rise of 3.8% in a median beside a fall of 15.71% in another should ask what the difference means for a particular house. A median moves with the mix of homes that closed, and a month with fewer large houses can show a fall that no one house experienced. A quarter that includes the spring season can show a rise for the same reason. The practical answer is to compare a house with the homes most like it that sold in the last three months, and to treat both medians as a backdrop, not as an estimate of what a house will fetch.

Sources as cited. Ratios and earlier values in this section are computed from the published figures and percentages.

How long do Arlington homes wait, and how far above asking do they go?

The wait is short. Redfin shows an average of 17 days against 26 a year before, and says the average home goes pending in around 21 days, while hot homes go in around 4 days. Realtor.com shows a median of 24 days, down 15.79% in a year, which implies about 29 days a year earlier, and up 33.33% in three years, which implies about 18 days three years earlier. Zillow's page for the whole of Arlington says homes go pending in around 17 days.

Redfin describes the area as most competitive, with a score of 90 out of 100. Its page says that most homes get multiple offers, often with waived contingencies, that the average home sells for about 3% above list and that hot homes can sell for about 8% above list, with an average of five offers per home. Its sale-to-list ratio of 103.4% is above Realtor.com's 101%, and the two agree that homes sell at or above the asking price.

Above-list sales are the norm. Redfin shows that 62.8% of homes sold above list, up 20.1 points from a year before, and that 14.4% had price drops, down 8.1 points. Nearly two homes in three sold above asking, and only about one in seven had a cut. In a market like that, a first price is a starting point, and an agent's pricing strategy can draw a crowd of bidders. The risk for a seller is a bidding contest that ends with contingencies waived and a buyer who asks for a credit after inspection.

Supply is thin. Realtor.com shows 35 active listings, down 11.32% in a year, which implies about 39 a year earlier, but up 74.07% in three years, which implies about 20 three years earlier. A count that low means that a few sales can change the picture, and a seller who lists a house that fits what buyers want may draw several offers.

Rentals are few and expensive. Realtor.com shows 19 rental properties, flat in a year and down 29.63% in three years, which implies about 27 three years earlier. The median rent of $4,800, up 20.75% in a year, implies about $3,975 a year earlier and, up 23.23% in three years, about $3,895. The Census median gross rent of $1,911, plus or minus $240, covers all renters, and the asking rent is 151.2% above it, on a count of only 19 rentals.

Season matters in the Washington area. Spring is the busy season, and the pages for the early summer carry the benefit of it. Homes that are prepared, priced with care and shown well can draw several offers in the first weekend. A seller who needs a firm closing date should remember that a bidding contest also brings offers with long contingencies or a request to rent back, and a high price with conditions can be worth less than a lower price that closes on the owner's date.

Sources as cited. Earlier values and differences are computed from the published percentages.

Who owns a home in this part of Arlington, and who rents?

Owners are a large majority. Of 6,765 occupied homes, 5,281 are owner-occupied, 78.1%, and 1,484 are renter-occupied, 21.9%. Of 7,005 units, 240 are vacant, 3.4%, and the Census counts 126 for rent, 36 sold and not yet occupied and 78 other vacant units. No units were counted as vacant for sale only, and none as seasonal, which fits a market with little slack.

Owners have moved in at many times. Of 5,281 owner households, 17 moved in during 2023 or later, 0.3%, 435 between 2020 and 2022, 8.2%, 1,599 in the 2010s, 30.3%, 1,067 in the 2000s, 20.2%, 1,113 in the 1990s, 21.1%, and 1,050 before 1990, 19.9%. Owners who moved in before 2000 are 41.0%, long-settled households with large gains. Renters move more often: of 1,484, 533 moved in between 2020 and 2022, 35.9%, and 650 in the 2010s, 43.8%.

The population is family-heavy. Of 17,738 people counted, 4,615 are under 18, 26.0%, 783 are 18 to 24, 4.4%, 1,297 are 25 to 34, 7.3%, 2,799 are 35 to 44, 15.8%, 5,161 are 45 to 64, 29.1%, and 3,083 are 65 or older, 17.4%. Owner homes are large: of 5,281, 2,036 have four bedrooms, 38.6%, 1,990 have three, 37.7%, 936 have five or more, 17.7%, and 248 have two, 4.7%. Houses of that size sell to families.

Owner debt is moderate. Of 5,281 owners, 3,759 have a mortgage, 71.2%, and 1,522 do not, 28.8%. Among the 3,759 mortgage holders with a computed figure, 943 spent 30% or more of income on housing costs, 25.1%, and 380 spent 50% or more, 10.1%. Among the 1,496 owners without a mortgage and with a computed figure, 126 spent 30% or more, 8.4%, and 83 spent 50% or more, 5.5%, mostly the cost of taxes and upkeep.

Renters carry a heavy burden. Of 1,484 renters, 1,478 with a computed figure, 697 spent 30% or more of income on rent, 47.2%, and 346 spent 50% or more, 23.4%. Renter homes are mixed in size: 518 of 1,484 have one bedroom, 34.9%, 435 have three, 29.3%, and 175 have two, 11.8%. A median asking rent of $4,800, over a year, is 28.6% of the median household income.

With nearly four in five occupied homes owned and many owners settled for decades, sales often follow a change in the household, such as children leaving, a move for work or a decision to downsize from a large house. Those sellers tend to want a calm process and a closing date that gives them time to find the next home. They are also the owners with the most to gain from avoiding repairs on a house that has been lived in for a long time, and from keeping a sale quiet in a neighborhood where people know each other.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020-2024 five-year estimates, tables B01001, B25003, B25004, B25038, B25042, B25070 and B25091, via Census Reporter. Shares are computed here.

How old is the Arlington stock, and why do the detached houses matter?

Most of it is postwar. Of 7,005 units, 918, or 13.1%, were built before 1940, 2,420, or 34.5%, in the 1940s, 1,447, or 20.7%, in the 1950s, 392, or 5.6%, in the 1960s, 518, or 7.4%, in the 1970s, and 332, or 4.7%, in the 1980s. After that, 458 were built in the 1990s, 159 in the 2000s, 306 in the 2010s and 55 in 2020 or later. Houses built before 1980 total 5,695, or 81.3%, and the 1940s alone account for 34.5%.

The mix of building types is simple. Of 7,005 units, 5,677 are in detached homes, 81.0%, 382 are attached, 5.5%, 36 are in two-unit buildings, 13 in buildings of three or four units, 504 in buildings of 5 to 9, 156 in buildings of 10 to 19, 41 in buildings of 20 to 49 and 147 in buildings of 50 or more. The Census also counts 49 mobile homes. Buildings of five or more units total 848, or 12.1%. A seller of a detached house is selling into a deep market of similar houses.

Houses of the 1940s and 1950s are a distinctive stock. Many are brick or frame houses of modest size, and some have likely been expanded or updated, which varies from house to house. Original wiring, plumbing, windows and heating, along with old chimneys and basements, often turn up repair items in an inspection. With 81.3% of units built before 1980, a buyer's inspector is likely to find several. In a market where contingencies are often waived, a buyer who skips the inspection prices the risk instead.

Large owner homes, with four or more bedrooms in 56.3% of cases, are common, and the Census median owner value is far above the Zillow value for the whole of Arlington, which covers all housing types. That is a reminder that a median across all home types says little about a detached house. A seller of a large house should look at sales of large houses of the same age, in the same part of the postal area, and ignore medians that blend in apartments.

A seller who would rather not have an inspector's list negotiated on a public listing can choose a private sale, in which a buyer buys the house as it stands. That is the fifth benefit of Maison Off-Market, avoiding inspections and repairs, and it is not a claim that a private sale always yields a higher price. Readers comparing markets can also read the Arlington brief and the McLean brief.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020-2024 five-year estimates, tables B25024, B25034 and B25042, via Census Reporter. Shares are computed here.

What should an Arlington owner ask before choosing a listing or a private sale?

Five questions are worth asking. Is my price based on closed sales of houses like mine in the last few months, and not on one median? How many offers might I expect, and what contingencies will they carry? What will inspections and repairs cost me on a house of this age? Who will see the house during showings, and who will hear about the sale? And what date do I need to close, given where I plan to live next?

Fees are simple arithmetic, and no rate is assumed here. Each 1% of a $1,200,000 sale is $12,000, of a $2,000,000 sale is $20,000, and of a $3,000,000 sale is $30,000. At 3%, those sales cost $36,000, $60,000 and $90,000, and at 5% they cost $60,000, $100,000 and $150,000. At the Redfin median of $1,349,695, 1% is $13,497 and 5% is $67,485. Maison Off-Market does not charge commissions or closing costs.

A private sale has no showings and no neighbors talking about it, which is the first benefit. The second benefit is a closing date the owner can set, which gives time to find a new home. The third is no commission costs, the fourth is no closing costs and the fifth is avoiding inspections and repairs. In a postal area where most homes sell above list in weeks, a closing date the owner controls and a sale without showings are worth weighing against a bidding contest.

In a fast market with many offers, an owner is right to compare a listing with a private offer. The comparison includes the commission, the closing costs, the repairs a buyer may ask for, the weeks of preparation and showings, and the privacy given up. It also includes the chance that a bidding contest lifts the price above a listing figure, which this market has shown. A fair comparison puts all of those items on the same page.

Maison Off-Market buys luxury homes and estates directly from their owners and speaks only to sellers. It does not say that every private sale beats a listing. An owner who wants to see what a direct purchase would look like, with no public listing and no showings, can use the contact form below and ask for an offer before deciding.

Sources as cited. Fee illustrations are arithmetic only and assume no commission rate.

Methodology and limitations

Each page's date, title and place were read before use. The Redfin page covers the three months ending June 2026 and the Realtor.com page is dated June 2026, so the two cover related but not identical windows, and both are months older than this brief. The Realtor.com neighborhood table is for a wider area than this postal area, with one row listing hundreds of homes for sale, and was not relied on. The Zillow page is for the whole of Arlington, not the postal area, and is dated August 31, 2026. The Census figures are five-year survey estimates with margins of error, and the vacancy and tenure counts are survey counts, not a count of every home. Earlier values are computed from published percentages and are approximate. No figure here is a forecast.

Conclusion

The record for this part of Arlington, as far as the pages allow, is an owner-dominated postal area of postwar detached houses, a fast market in which most homes sell above list, and a sold median that rises on one page and falls on another. For an owner, the practical step is to ask for the closed sales behind the medians, compare the cost of a listing with a direct offer, and decide how much of the showing, inspection and timing risk to carry.