Why Do the Tavernier Sold Prices Disagree, and Can an Owner Trust Any of Them? Reading the Small Samples, the Seasonal Homes and the Wide Margins

Why do the Tavernier price medians disagree so widely?

Four price figures are on the table, and they do not agree. The Census median owner value is $732,800, a five-year survey estimate with a margin of error of $58,475, or 8.0% of the value. Realtor.com's median sold price is $725,000 and its median listing price is $949,000, both as of September 2026. Redfin's median sale price is $955,836 for the three months ending August 2026. The four figures are close in date except for the Census, which averages five survey years.

Redfin's median of $955,836 is 31.8% above the Realtor.com sold median of $725,000, taking Realtor.com as the base, and 30.4% above the Census median value. Realtor.com's sold median is 1.1% below the Census value. The pages differ in window, since Redfin pools three months and Realtor.com shows one, and the difference alone does not explain a gap of this size.

The year-on-year changes also disagree. Redfin shows its median up 29.4% in a year, which implies about $738,668 a year before, while its price per square foot of $733 is down 17.2%, which implies about $885. A median price that rises by nearly a third while the price per foot falls by a sixth can happen if the homes that sold were much larger or of a different kind, and the page does not say. The brief treats it as a mix effect and not a change in the value of any home.

Realtor.com's sold median is down 52.95% on the month, which implies about $1,540,914 the month before, and down 7.35% on the year, which implies about $782,515. A median sale price that halves in a month is not a believable change in what homes are worth, and the brief flags it. A swing like that is consistent with a postal area that has few sales in a month, where a few large or small sales move the middle.

Realtor.com's median listing price of $949,000 is up 18.57% on the month, which implies about $800,371 the month before, and up 1.23% on the year, which implies about $937,469. The jump in a month is another sign of a small sample. The listing median is 29.5% above the Census value, and asking prices and survey values measure different things, so the gap does not show that homes sell for more than owners report.

Sources as cited. Earlier values and differences are computed from the published percentages.

Why do the Tavernier counts matter more than the medians?

Redfin counts 43 homes sold in August 2026, up from 32 a year before. The page calls the change 35.1%, while 43 against 32 is 34.4%, so the percentage on the page does not match the counts and is flagged. The count is the point, though. A postal area with a few dozen sales in a month can see its median move by a large amount from one or two sales of unusual homes.

Realtor.com shows 123 active listings, down 8.39% on the month and also down 8.39% on the year. Two identical changes over different periods are unlikely, so the brief flags the figure and treats the count of 123 as the current level. Set against 2,507 occupied homes, 123 listings equal 4.9%, though the listings include homes that are not usual homes and the Census count does not map to them exactly, so the ratio is a rough guide.

Realtor.com shows 30 rental properties, flat on the month and up 2.78% on the year, and a median asking rent of $3,500, down 12.39% on the month, which implies about $3,995 the month before, and down 22.20% on the year, which implies about $4,499. With 30 rentals, a median can move a great deal with a few listings, and the brief does not read the rent change as a trend. The Census median gross rent is $1,923, plus or minus $241, and the asking median is 82.0% above it.

Price per square foot moves less on Realtor.com. The listing figure of $830 is up 1.35% on the month, which implies about $819, and up 0.94% on the year, which implies about $822. Redfin's sale figure of $733 is lower, and the two measure listings against sales over different windows, so the brief states no gap between them.

What the figures support is a market that is thin. The count of sales, the count of listings and the count of rentals are all small, and each median rests on a few homes. An owner reading a page that says prices rose by nearly a third, and another that says they fell by half in a month, should take both as noise and ask for the closed sales of homes like their own.

A seller reading these figures should avoid a common trap. A median listing price is the middle of what owners are asking, and many listings never sell at that figure. A median sale price is the middle of what buyers paid, but only for the homes that closed in the period. Neither describes a particular home. The only evidence that does is the closed sales of homes with the same type, size, age, condition and setting, and those are what a seller should ask to see before setting a price.

Sources as cited. Earlier values and differences are computed from the published percentages.

How long do Tavernier homes wait, and what do sellers get against asking?

More than four months. Redfin shows a median of 143 days on the market for the three months ending August 2026 against 100 a year before, and a compete score of 9, not very competitive, with the average home selling about 5% below list and going pending in about 142 days. Realtor.com shows a median of 122 days for September 2026, up 12.56% on the month, which implies about 108 days, and up 4.02% on the year, which implies about 117.

The two pages measure the wait differently. Redfin's figure is for homes that sold, and Realtor.com's is for homes on the market, so the first records finished waits and the second shows listings still waiting. Both are above four months.

Sales settle below asking. Redfin shows a sale-to-list ratio of 95.4%, up 0.4 points, with 4.8% of homes sold above list, up 1.6 points. Realtor.com puts the sale-to-list ratio at 96%, with homes sold for 4.04% below asking in September 2026, and calls it a buyer's market in the same month. The page also calls the market warm in one line and a buyer's market in another, and the brief reports both.

One Redfin figure is not used. The page shows a block for homes with price drops that repeats the sale-to-list ratio of 95.4%, which is not a price-drop share, so the brief makes no claim about price drops here.

A market where homes wait more than four months and sell about 4% to 5% below list is a market where the first asking price matters, and where a seller with a fixed date carries the risk of a long wait. A direct sale, with a closing date the owner can set, takes that risk away. The brief does not say that a direct sale always brings more, and the sources do not measure it.

The spread around the median matters as much as the median. Some homes sell in weeks, while others sit for most of a year and then cut their price. The pages report medians and not the spread, so a seller with a fixed date cannot read the risk of a long wait from them. A better guide is the days on market of homes of the same kind sold in the last year, which an owner can ask for and compare with the page figures here.

Sources as cited. Earlier values are computed from the published percentages.

Who lives in Tavernier, and how heavy is housing cost?

The population is 5,768, with a margin of error of 698. Of those, 814 are under 18, 14.1%, 403 are 18 to 24, 7.0%, 453 are 25 to 34, 7.9%, 534 are 35 to 44, 9.3%, 1,854 are 45 to 64, 32.1%, and 1,710 are 65 or older, 29.6%. The population leans older, with about a third aged 45 to 64 and nearly a third aged 65 or more.

Of 2,507 occupied homes, 2,047, or 81.7%, are owned and 460, or 18.3%, are rented. Owners lean to three bedrooms: of 2,047, 948 have three, 46.3%, 660 have two, 177 have four, 141 have one, 68 have none and 53 have five or more. Renters lean to two bedrooms: of 460, 228 have two, 147 have one, 70 have three and 15 have none.

Of 2,047 owner homes, 28 moved in during 2023 or later and 461 in 2020 to 2022, together 23.9%. A further 684 moved in during the 2010s, 306 in the 2000s, 395 in the 1990s and 173 earlier, so 27.7% have been in place since before 2000. Renters are newer: of 460, 58.5% moved in during 2020 or later.

Housing cost is heavy. Of 460 renter homes, 26 have no computed rent share, and of the remaining 434, 374, or 86.2%, pay 30% or more of income on rent and 204, or 47.0%, pay 50% or more. Among owners with a mortgage, 498 of 970, or 51.3%, pay 30% or more and 239, or 24.6%, pay 50% or more. Of 1,077 owners without a mortgage, 270 of 1,009 computed, or 26.8%, pay 30% or more. The Census margins on these counts are wide, and the renter count is small.

The median household income is $75,436, with a margin of error of $27,636, or 36.6% of the estimate, so the income figure is too uncertain to build on. The median gross rent is $1,923, plus or minus $241. The median owner value is about 9.7 times the median income at the point estimates, and the brief flags that ratio as unreliable for the same reason.

The share of renters among occupied homes, 18.3%, is a reminder that part of the postal area is a rental market, though a small one. Realtor.com shows 30 rental properties, and with so few, the rent figure is thin. The sources do not say who owns the rented homes or how long they are rented, so the brief makes no claim about that. For an owner, the point is that the cost of renting sits beside the cost of owning, and both bear on where a household moves next. Readers comparing markets can also read the Panama City Beach brief and the Palma Ceia brief.

Sources as cited. Shares and ratios are computed from the Census counts.

What mix of homes does Tavernier have, and what should an owner ask?

Most of the stock is detached. Of 4,462 units, 3,210, or 71.9%, are detached houses, 158 are attached houses, 211 are in buildings of two units, 121 in buildings of three or four, 52 in buildings of five to nine, 151 in buildings of twenty to forty-nine and 242 in buildings of fifty or more. The Census also counts 317 mobile homes, 7.1%, and no boats or recreational vehicles.

The vacancy count adds to the picture. Of 1,955 vacant units, 1,755 are held for seasonal, recreational or occasional use, which is 89.8% of the vacant units and 39.3% of all units. A further 167 are for rent and 33 are for sale only. The Census does not say who owns the seasonal units or how often they are used, so the brief makes no claim about that. It does show that a large part of the stock is not a usual home, which is one reason a median of a few sales can mislead.

The stock is mostly from the 1970s. Of 4,462 units, 8, or 0.2%, were built before 1940, 44 in the 1940s, 157 in the 1950s, 366, or 8.2%, in the 1960s and 1,584, or 35.5%, in the 1970s. After that, 791, or 17.7%, were built in the 1980s, 640, or 14.3%, in the 1990s, 410 in the 2000s, 439 in the 2010s and 23 in 2020 or later. Homes built before 1980 total 2,159, or 48.4%.

A seller should keep four questions apart. What do closed sales of homes of the same kind show? How many weeks might a listing take, with a median above four months and sales settling below asking? What would inspections and repairs cost on a home of this age? And what date does the owner need to close? The first question is about price, the second about time, the third about cost and the fourth about the next home.

For illustration only, a total commission of 1%, 3% or 5% on a sale of $450,000 would be $4,500, $13,500 or $22,500. On $725,000 it would be $7,250, $21,750 or $36,250, and on $1,200,000 it would be $12,000, $36,000 or $60,000. At the Census median owner value of $732,800, the same percentages come to $7,328, $21,984 and $36,640. These are arithmetic and not quoted rates, since commissions are negotiated.

The five benefits of a private sale to Maison Off-Market are privacy, because there are no showings and no neighbors talking about the sale, closing dates that can be flexible and give time to find a new home, no commission costs, no closing costs and no inspections or repairs. Maison Off-Market buys luxury homes and estates directly from their owners and speaks only to sellers. It does not say a private sale always beats a listing. An owner who wants to see what a direct purchase would look like, with no public listing and no showings, can use the contact form below and ask for an offer before deciding.

Sources as cited. Fee figures are arithmetic and not quoted rates.

Methodology and limitations

Each page's date, title and place were read before use. The Redfin page covers the three months ending August 2026 and the Realtor.com page has key indicators as of September 2026, so the pages are close in date. The Redfin sold median, up 29.4% in a year while its price per square foot fell 17.2%, and the Realtor.com sold median, down 52.95% in a month, are flagged as unreliable. The Redfin sold count change of 35.1% differs from the arithmetic. The Realtor.com active listing change is identical on the month and the year. The Redfin price-drop block repeats the sale-to-list ratio and is not used. Realtor.com calls the market both warm and a buyer's market. No Zillow postal-area page was found, so no Zillow figure is used. The Realtor.com neighborhood tables list named communities and were not relied on. The Census figures are five-year survey estimates with margins of error, very wide for income and wide for value, rent and the cost-burden counts. Earlier values are computed from published percentages and are approximate. No figure here is a forecast.

Conclusion

The record for Tavernier, as far as the pages allow, is a small postal area where the sold medians conflict and move by amounts that cannot be real changes in value, where homes wait more than four months and sell below list, and where about two in five housing units are held for seasonal use. For an owner, the practical step is to ask for the closed sales of comparable homes of the same kind, compare the cost and risk of a listing with a direct offer, and decide how much of the showing, inspection and timing risk to carry.