Does a Marathon Seller's Buyer Plan to Live in the Keys, Rent the Place or Only Visit? Reading Redfin, Zillow, Realtor.com and the Census Rented Homes

Why do the Marathon price figures not agree?

The Marathon figures are old and they contradict one another. Redfin shows a median sale price of $744K, down 12.5%, which implies about $850,286 a year earlier, and in the same breath a price per square foot of $757, up 31.7%, which implies about $575 a year earlier. A median that fell by an eighth cannot sit beside a per-foot price that rose by almost a third unless the mix of homes sold changed a great deal. At $757 a foot, a $744K sale is about 983 square feet, which suggests that smaller homes dominated the sales. That is an inference, and the per-foot figure is not relied on here.

The postal area listings tell a different story. Realtor.com's March figure of $744 per square foot is the listing price per foot, down 2.49% in a year, which implies about $763 a year earlier. It is nearly the same number as Redfin's sold figure of $757, and it is down, not up. Taken together, the per-foot price for Marathon appears to be in the neighborhood of $750, and the 31.7% rise on Redfin looks like a quirk of a small sample, since 82 homes sold in May.

The levels differ because the measures differ. Redfin's $744K is a three-month median of sales through May. Zillow's $824,970 is an index of typical value, which was 10.9% above Redfin's median, computed here. Realtor.com's listing median of $1,079,000 is 45.0% above Redfin's sold median, computed here, and a listing price is not a sale price. The Census median owner value is $747,300, plus or minus $81,497, which lands almost on the Redfin figure, 0.4% above it.

Direction is a guess. Redfin shows prices down 12.5%, Zillow shows values down 2.0%, and Realtor.com shows the listing median down 1.82% in a year and down 12.81% in three, which implies about $1,237,000 three years earlier. The county figure is flat, with the median sold price unchanged in a year at $975,000. The sources agree only that Marathon has not risen. A seller should expect that a price near the Redfin level would be consistent with recent sales, and one near the listing level may need time.

The Census income is $94,898, and the owner value of $747,300 is 7.9 times that income, computed here. Many sales in a resort town are to buyers whose income is earned somewhere else, and this ratio is of limited use as a measure of local affordability. The Census median rent of $1,653 a month, which is $19,836 a year, is well below Realtor.com's median listing rent of $5,000 for the postal area, a gap that reflects the mix of homes offered for rent.

A note on method helps here. Where sources disagree this much, the useful habit is to find the figure that two of them support and to treat the outlier as a question. Redfin's sold median and the Census owner value are within half a percent of each other, and Realtor.com's per-foot listing price is within 2% of Redfin's per-foot sold price, so those three points hold together. The 31.7% rise and the 12.5% fall do not, and an owner who is shown either as a trend by a buyer should ask for the sales behind it.

Sources as cited. Ratios and year-earlier values in this section are computed from the published figures and percentages.

How slow is the Marathon market, and what does that ask of a seller?

Redfin rates Marathon not very competitive. Multiple offers are rare. The average home sells about 7% below list and goes pending in around 101 days, and the hottest homes sell about 3% below list in around 47 days. The sale-to-list ratio is 93.2%, so on a $744K sale the gap from the ask is about $50,600, computed here, and only 5.0% of homes sold above list.

Time is the main cost. Redfin shows a median of 102 days on market against 130 a year earlier, a fall of 28 days, which is an improvement but still more than three months. Zillow's spring reading is around 69 days to pending, and Realtor.com's postal area figure for March is 87 days, up 1.16% in a year, which implies about 86 days a year earlier. The county figure for September is 110 days. A seller should expect a sale to take about three months from listing to contract and longer to close.

Supply has grown over three years. Realtor.com shows 384 active listings in March, down 2.96% in a year, which implies about 396 a year earlier, but up 44.41% in three, which implies about 266. Against Redfin's 82 sales in May, 384 listings are about 4.7 times a month of sales, computed here and an inference, since the sources count different months and areas. A market with that much supply gives a buyer room to wait, and gives a seller reason to price carefully.

The county shows the same slowness. Realtor.com's county page for September shows 1,843 active listings, down 2.17% in a year, which implies about 1,884 a year earlier, a median listing price of $1,175,000, which is 20.5% above the sold median of $975,000, computed here, and homes selling 4.55% below the asking price. A gap of 20.5% between listing and sold medians is a sign that asking prices are not being met.

For a seller, the practical question is carrying cost. A home that takes three or four months to sell costs taxes, insurance, utilities and upkeep for that time, and a home in the Keys may need storm preparation as well. A buyer who offers a close date, no financing condition and no repair list changes that arithmetic. The seller should compare such an offer with a listing price less the discount seen in the sale-to-list ratio, less fees, less the cost of time.

Seasonality is probably part of the story, though the pages do not measure it. A town where one home in four is a seasonal home has a calendar, with visitors looking in the cooler months and few in the summer. A listing that comes on in late spring meets a thinner buyer pool, and one that comes on in autumn meets a returning one. That is an inference from the Census count of seasonal homes and not a measured pattern, and a seller who cannot choose the season may prefer a private offer that does not depend on it.

Sources as cited. Year-earlier values and differences are computed from the published percentages.

How many Marathon homes are rentals or seasonal homes?

The Census count of vacancy is high. Of 7,323 housing units, 4,313, or 58.9%, are occupied and 3,010, or 41.1%, are vacant. Of the vacant units, 1,892, or 62.9%, are held for seasonal, recreational or occasional use, which is 25.8% of all units. Another 562, or 18.7% of vacant units, are for rent, 133, or 4.4%, are rented but not yet occupied, 154, or 5.1%, are for sale only and 269, or 8.9%, are vacant for other reasons.

Rentals are a large part of the market. Of 4,313 occupied homes, 1,659, or 38.5%, are renter-occupied, and 2,654, or 61.5%, are owner-occupied. Of the rented homes, 105 households moved in during 2023 or later and 554 between 2020 and 2022, so 659, or 39.7%, moved in since 2020. Another 799, 48.2%, moved in between 2010 and 2019, so 1,458 renter households, 87.9%, arrived since 2010.

Renters carry a heavy cost. Of 1,541 renter households with a computed figure, 915, or 59.4%, spent 30% or more of income on rent, and 463, or 30.0%, spent half or more. The Census median rent is $1,653 and the median household income is $94,898, but these medians cover owners and renters together, and the renter group is far more stretched than the average. That is a reason why rental properties sell to investors and not to the tenants.

The stock is mixed. Of the 7,323 units, 3,709, or 50.6%, are detached houses, 643, or 8.8%, are attached, 689, or 9.4%, are in buildings of two to four units and 1,362, or 18.6%, are in buildings of five or more. Mobile homes make up 882 units, 12.0%, and boats, recreational vehicles and similar make up 38 units, 0.5%. Houses and attached homes together are 59.4% of units, which leaves about four homes in ten in other forms.

Age is mixed too. Of the units, 2,206, or 30.1%, were built in the 1970s, 1,623, or 22.2%, in the 1980s, 734, or 10.0%, in the 1990s, 553, or 7.6%, in the 2000s, 911, or 12.4%, in the 2010s and 247, or 3.4%, in 2020 or later. In all, 3,255 units, 44.4%, were built before 1980, and 1,711, 23.4%, since 2000. The median build year is 1983. The oldest homes will have roofs, wiring and plumbing that a buyer's inspector will examine closely.

A rented home sells differently from an owner's home. If a tenant is in place, a buyer who wants to live there must wait for the lease to end, and a buyer who wants to keep renting will price the home by the rent it earns. Rents here are high on the listing pages, at $5,000 a month for the postal area and $3,700 for the county, and a landlord should be ready to show the actual leases and the actual income and costs. A private buyer who is an investor will do that sum within a day.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020-2024 five-year estimates, tables B25004, B25003, B25038, B25070, B25024 and B25034, via Census Reporter. Shares are computed here.

Who owns the homes, and what do they spend?

Owners are a majority but not an overwhelming one. Of 2,654 owner households, 82 moved in during 2023 or later and 593 between 2020 and 2022, so 675, or 25.4%, moved in since 2020. Another 998, 37.6%, moved in between 2010 and 2019, 358, 13.5%, between 2000 and 2009, 366, 13.8%, in the 1990s and 257, 9.7%, before 1990. In all, 63.0% arrived since 2010, and 23.5% have been in place since before 2000.

Mortgage use is moderate. Of 2,654 owners, 1,200, or 45.2%, have a mortgage and 1,454, or 54.8%, do not. Among owners with a mortgage, 450, or 37.5%, spent 30% or more of income on housing, and 232, or 19.3%, spent half or more. Among owners without a mortgage, 290, or 19.9%, spent 30% or more, and 85, or 5.8%, spent half or more, which reflects taxes and insurance on a home owned outright. In all, 740 owner households, 28.2% of those with a computed figure, carry a heavy cost.

Homes are small to middle in size. Of 2,654 owner households, 236, or 8.9%, live in a home with no bedroom or one bedroom, 931, or 35.1%, in a two-bedroom, 1,091, or 41.1%, in a three-bedroom, 368, or 13.9%, in a four-bedroom and 28, or 1.1%, in one with five or more bedrooms, so 56.0% have three or more bedrooms. Among renters, 593 households, 35.7%, live in a studio or one-bedroom home.

The population is mixed in age. Of 10,561 residents, 2,081, or 19.7%, are under 18, 531, or 5.0%, are 18 to 24, 951, or 9.0%, are 25 to 34, 1,365, or 12.9%, are 35 to 44, 3,281, or 31.1%, are 45 to 64 and 2,352, or 22.3%, are 65 or older. That is more children than a retirement town and more older residents than a family suburb, a blend of working households, retirees and seasonal visitors.

For a seller, the mix means a varied buyer pool: local households, investors who rent the home, seasonal residents and retirees. Each wants something different from a house, and each negotiates differently. A seller who does not wish to wait for the right one can ask for a private offer, and compare it with the arithmetic of a listing. Readers comparing markets can also read the Palm Beach Gardens brief and the Holmes Beach brief.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020-2024 five-year estimates, tables B25038, B25091, B25042, B01001, B19013 and B25077, via Census Reporter. Shares are computed here.

What should a Marathon owner ask, and what does a private sale change?

Five questions are worth asking. Is my home priced against sales or against listings, which sit about a fifth higher? How long can I carry it? Who is the likely buyer, a resident, an investor or a seasonal owner? What will the fees be? How much of the price survives the buyer's inspection?

Fees are simple arithmetic, and no rate is assumed here. Each 1% of a $450,000 sale is $4,500, of a $725,000 sale is $7,250 and of a $1,200,000 sale is $12,000. Three percent is $13,500, $21,750 and $36,000, and five percent is $22,500, $36,250 and $60,000. A seller can put their own quoted costs into those rows. On the Redfin median of $744K, 1% is $7,440, 3% is $22,320 and 5% is $37,200.

A private sale has no showings and no neighbors talking about it, which is the first benefit. For an owner who lives elsewhere or rents the home to tenants, there is a practical side: no open houses, no staging and no need to be in the Keys when a buyer calls. The second benefit is a closing date that suits the seller, which helps an owner who wants to close before a storm season or time a move.

The third and fourth benefits are no commission costs and no closing costs, and the fifth is no inspection repairs. In a postal area where 44.4% of homes were built before 1980, an inspector will look at the roof, the wiring, the plumbing and the air conditioning, so the fifth is worth pricing. A buyer who takes the home as it stands leaves the seller no repair list.

Maison Off-Market buys luxury homes and estates directly from their owners and speaks only to sellers. It does not say that a private sale always beats a public listing, and in a market where homes sell about 7% below list on average, an owner is right to compare an offer with what the same home would net after costs. If you would like a private, no-obligation offer for a home in Marathon, call 401-219-4207 or use the contact form on this site.

Sources as cited. Fee illustrations are arithmetic only and assume no commission rate.

Methodology and limitations

Each page's date, title and place were read before use. The Redfin page is for the three months ending May 2026 and is titled as of June. The Zillow page was updated April 30, 2026, and the Realtor.com postal area page carries indicators as of March 2026, so both are months old and are used only as references. The Realtor.com county page is for September 2026 and covers Monroe County, the whole Keys chain, so it is a regional reference and not a Marathon figure. Redfin's median, down 12.5%, and its per-foot price, up 31.7%, contradict each other, and the per-foot figure is reported as printed and not relied on. Only established data publishers and the Census are cited. The Census figures are five-year estimates for the postal area that the sheet lists for Marathon. Percent changes were taken as printed, and ratios, sums, fee figures and year-earlier values are this brief's arithmetic.

Conclusion

The record for Marathon shows a level of roughly $0.74M to $0.82M for sales and values, homes that sell about 7% below list in around three months, and a stock in which more than a third of occupied homes are rented and a quarter of all homes are seasonal. The useful number for an owner is a closed sale of a comparable home, and a private buyer can price the home in front of them and close on the owner's schedule.