Does a Holmes Beach Seller Compete With Vacation Rentals and Second Homes? Reading Redfin, Zillow, Realtor.com and the Census Empty Homes

Why do the Holmes Beach price figures point in opposite directions?

The price figures rise while the time on market lengthens, and that needs an explanation. Redfin's median of $1,024,443 is up 17.1%, which implies about $874,845 a year earlier, and its per-foot price of $641 is up 22.6%, which implies about $523. At the same time, homes took 97 days to sell against 31, the average home sold about 8% below list and 42.3% had price drops. A market whose prices are up and whose sales are slow is usually one in which a different mix of homes is selling.

The likeliest cause is mix. Redfin counted 71 sales in June against 48 a year earlier, which is more sales, and a handful of high-priced homes can lift a median in a small town. Realtor.com's median sold price of $1,072,500 is up 22.57% in a year, which implies about $875,010, and down 2.50% in three years, which implies about $1,100,000 three years earlier. So the rise is a recovery from a low year and not a new high. That is an inference.

Listings show the other side. Realtor.com's listing median of $1,395,000 is down 1.93% in a year, which implies about $1,422,453, and down 22.46% in three years. It is 30.1% above the sold median of $1,072,500, computed here, which is a wide gap, and it matches the 97% sale-to-list ratio only if many homes are cut before they sell. Redfin shows 42.3% of listings with price drops, and that fits.

Zillow's index is calmer. Its $989,114 is up 2.4%, which implies about $965,932 a year earlier, and it sits 3.4% below Redfin's median and 7.8% below Realtor.com's sold median, computed here. Per-foot prices are near $900 on Realtor.com, up 1.65%, which implies about $887 a year earlier, and down 11.79% in three years. Taken together, the sources show prices roughly level with a year or three years ago, with a lot of noise.

The Census owner value of $657,400, plus or minus $75,739, is 35.8% below the Redfin median and 38.7% below the Realtor.com sold median, computed here. It is 8.1 times the Census median household income of $80,972. The postal area includes many condominiums and older cottages that sell for less than a waterfront house, and the owner's own estimate is lower than recent sales.

A lesson for a seller follows from all of this. When a single three-month median rises by a sixth in a market where homes are taking three times as long to sell, the median is a poor guide to what a particular home will fetch. A seller is better served by the sales of homes close to their own in size, age and position, within the last several months, and by the number of days those homes sat. A buyer, or a buyer's agent, will do that work, and an owner who has done it first can judge any offer, public or private, against a figure that is the owner's own.

Sources as cited. Ratios and year-earlier values in this section are computed from the published figures and percentages.

How slow is the Holmes Beach market, and what does it ask of a seller?

Redfin rates Holmes Beach not very competitive, with a score of 4 out of 100. Multiple offers are rare. The average home sells about 8% below list and goes pending in around 146 days, and the hottest homes sell about 2% below list in around 49 days. On a $1,024,443 sale, 8% is about $81,955, computed here.

The pace has slowed sharply. Redfin shows a median of 97 days on market against 31 a year earlier, a rise of 66 days. Realtor.com shows 98 days, up 36.88%, which implies about 72 days a year earlier, and Zillow shows around 106 days to pending. The sources agree that a sale takes more than three months, and they differ on how much slower it is than last year.

Few homes sell above the ask. Redfin shows a sale-to-list ratio of 94.6% and only 2.9% of homes sold above list, so about one home in thirty. Realtor.com shows 97%. A seller who counts on a bidding war is unlikely to see one, and a seller who prices at the listing median is pricing well above what homes bring.

Supply has grown over three years. Realtor.com shows 205 active listings, down 5.60% in a year, which implies about 217 a year earlier, and up 69.77% in three, which implies about 121. Redfin counted 71 sales in June, so 205 listings are about 2.9 times a month of sales, computed here and an inference, since the two sources count different periods. A buyer in that market has many homes to choose from and no reason to hurry.

For a seller, the practical question is carrying cost. A house that takes three to five months to sell costs taxes, insurance, utilities and upkeep for that long, and an owner who lives elsewhere pays for a manager as well. A buyer who offers a close date, no financing condition and no repair list changes that arithmetic. The seller should compare such an offer with a listing price less the discount seen in the sale-to-list ratio, less fees, less the cost of time.

Seasonality probably matters more here than in most places, though the pages do not break out sales by month. A town with so many seasonal homes has a calendar, with visitors looking in the cooler months and fewer in the heat. A listing that comes on in late spring meets a buyer pool that is thinning, and one that comes on in autumn meets a returning one. That is an inference from the Census count of seasonal homes and not a measured pattern, and a seller who cannot choose the season may prefer a private offer that does not depend on it.

Sources as cited. Year-earlier values and differences are computed from the published percentages.

How many Holmes Beach homes are empty, rented or seasonal?

The Census count is among the highest anywhere. Of 5,974 housing units, 2,151, or 36.0%, are occupied and 3,823, or 64.0%, are vacant. Of the vacant units, 1,977, or 51.7%, are held for seasonal, recreational or occasional use, which is 33.1% of all units. Another 1,484, or 38.8% of vacant units, are for rent, which is 24.8% of all units, 242, or 6.3%, are vacant for other reasons, 70, or 1.8%, are for sale only and 50, or 1.3%, are sold and not yet occupied.

The rental count is large. One home in four is listed for rent at the time of the survey, and the Census counts only units that are vacant and offered for rent, not the units that are rented and occupied. A vacation rental that has a guest on the survey date is counted differently from one that is empty. Even so, 1,484 units for rent is far more than the 252 renter-occupied homes, which suggests how many homes are let by the week or the season. That is an inference.

This is not distress. In a resort town, an owner who uses a home for a few weeks a year, and lets it for the rest, shows up in the Census as a vacant home. The effect on a seller is that the buyer pool includes people who want a second home, people who want an income property and a smaller group who want to live here year-round. Each reads the price differently, and an income buyer reads it as a return.

Housing types are mixed. Of the 5,974 units, 2,090, or 35.0%, are detached houses, 512, or 8.6%, are attached, 1,261, or 21.1%, are in buildings of two to four units and 1,811, or 30.3%, are in buildings of five or more. Mobile homes make up 280 units, 4.7%, and boats, recreational vehicles and similar make up 20 units, 0.3%. Houses and attached homes together are 43.6% of units.

Age is mostly postwar. Of the units, 1,985, or 33.2%, were built in the 1970s, 1,058, or 17.7%, in the 1980s, 980, or 16.4%, in the 1960s and 766, or 12.8%, in the 1950s. In all, 3,960 units, 66.3%, were built before 1980, and 595, 10.0%, since 2000. The median build year is 1975. An older coastal building has older roofs, wiring, plumbing and structure, and a buyer's inspector will look at each of them closely.

A rental home sells differently from a home that its owner lives in. A buyer who wants to use the home personally must wait out any bookings that are already taken, and a buyer who wants to keep letting it will price it by the income it has earned. An owner who lets a home should be ready to show the booking history, the income, the costs and any local rules on short stays. A private buyer who is an income buyer will read those records quickly, and an owner who has them in order is better placed than one who must collect them while a buyer waits.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020-2024 five-year estimates, tables B25004, B25024 and B25034, via Census Reporter. Shares are computed here.

Who lives in Holmes Beach year-round, and what do they spend?

The year-round residents are older. Of 3,676 people counted, 2,167, or 58.9%, are 65 or older, 1,053, or 28.6%, are 45 to 64, 120, or 3.3%, are 35 to 44, 77, or 2.1%, are 25 to 34, 63, or 1.7%, are 18 to 24 and 196, or 5.3%, are under 18. This is a retirement community, and the sellers here are often owners who are downsizing, moving closer to family or moving to a place with care.

Owners dominate. Of 2,151 occupied homes, 1,899 are owner-occupied, 88.3%, and 252 are rented, 11.7%. The Census median household income is $80,972, and the median owner value is $657,400, 8.1 times income, computed here. Many owners are living on savings, pensions and the equity in the house, and not on a working income.

Tenure is mixed. Of 1,899 owner households, 11 moved in during 2023 or later and 314 between 2020 and 2022, so 325, or 17.1%, moved in since 2020. Another 771, 40.6%, moved in between 2010 and 2019, 456, 24.0%, between 2000 and 2009, 185, 9.7%, in the 1990s and 162, 8.5%, before 1990. In all, 57.7% arrived since 2010 and 18.3% have been in place since before 2000.

Costs are heavy for those with a mortgage. Of 1,899 owners, 541, or 28.5%, have a mortgage and 1,358, or 71.5%, do not. Among owners with a mortgage, 259, or 47.9%, spent 30% or more of income on housing, and 199, or 36.8%, spent half or more. Among owners without a mortgage, 426, or 31.4%, spent 30% or more, and 269, or 19.8%, spent half or more, which reflects taxes and insurance on a home owned outright. In all, 685 owner households, 36.4% of those with a computed figure, carry a heavy cost.

Homes are small. Of 1,899 owner households, 131, or 6.9%, live in a one-bedroom home, 1,008, or 53.1%, in a two-bedroom, 572, or 30.1%, in a three-bedroom, 142, or 7.5%, in a four-bedroom and 43, or 2.3%, in one with five or more bedrooms, so 60.1% live in a home with two bedrooms or fewer. A retiree with a fixed income and a rising cost of insurance and taxes may find that selling is the best way to turn the equity into security.

Put together, a typical year-round owner is a retiree who arrived in the last fifteen years, owns a two-bedroom home outright and lives on a fixed income with costs that rise each year. Such an owner is not forced to sell, so the decision often turns on timing and certainty. A seller who wants to move on a fixed date, or to avoid a summer of showings and the months of waiting that Redfin and Realtor.com describe, has good reason to ask what a private buyer would pay and on what terms. Readers comparing markets can also read the Marathon brief and the Coral Gables brief.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020-2024 five-year estimates, tables B25003, B25038, B25091, B25042, B01001, B19013 and B25077, via Census Reporter. Shares are computed here.

What should a Holmes Beach owner ask, and what does a private sale change?

Five questions are worth asking. Is my home priced against sales or against listings, which sit about 30% higher? How long can I carry it while it sits? Who is the likely buyer, a resident, a second-home owner or an income buyer? What will the fees be? How much of the price survives the buyer's inspection?

Fees are simple arithmetic, and no rate is assumed here. Each 1% of a $450,000 sale is $4,500, of a $725,000 sale is $7,250 and of a $1,200,000 sale is $12,000. Three percent is $13,500, $21,750 and $36,000, and five percent is $22,500, $36,250 and $60,000. A seller can put their own quoted costs into those rows. On the Redfin median of $1,024,443, 1% is $10,244, 3% is $30,733 and 5% is $51,222.

A private sale has no showings and no neighbors talking about it, which is the first benefit. For an owner who lives elsewhere or lets the home to guests, there is a practical side: no open houses, no staging and no need to be on the island when a buyer calls. The second benefit is a closing date that suits the seller, which helps an owner who wants to close before a storm season or time a move.

The third and fourth benefits are no commission costs and no closing costs, and the fifth is no inspection repairs. In a postal area where 66.3% of homes were built before 1980, an inspector will look at the roof, the wiring, the plumbing and the structure, so the fifth is worth pricing. A buyer who takes the home as it stands leaves the seller no repair list.

Maison Off-Market buys luxury homes and estates directly from their owners and speaks only to sellers. It does not say that a private sale always beats a public listing, and in a market where homes sell about 8% below list on average, an owner is right to compare an offer with what the same home would net after costs. If you would like a private, no-obligation offer for a home in Holmes Beach, call 401-219-4207 or use the contact form on this site.

Sources as cited. Fee illustrations are arithmetic only and assume no commission rate.

Methodology and limitations

Each page's date, title and place were read before use. The Redfin page is for the three months ending June 2026 and is titled as of August. The Zillow page was updated August 31, 2026. The Realtor.com page is for June 2026. Redfin shows a price rise of 17.1% beside a tripling of days on market, which is reported as printed and explained only as a labeled inference about the mix of homes sold; the sample is small, with 71 sales. Only established data publishers and the Census are cited. The Census figures are five-year estimates for the postal area that the sheet lists for Holmes Beach. Percent changes were taken as printed, and ratios, sums, fee figures and year-earlier values are this brief's arithmetic.

Conclusion

The record for Holmes Beach shows a level of about $0.99M to $1.07M, homes that sell about 8% below list after about three months, and a stock in which nearly two homes in three are vacant for most of the survey year, with seasonal use and rentals making up most of that. The useful number for an owner is a closed sale of a comparable home, and a private buyer can price the home in front of them and close on the owner's schedule.