Why Do South Tampa Pages Disagree on Months of Supply? Reading Both Medians and the Census Home Ages

Why do the South Tampa supply figures differ so much?

The first report counts 103 homes for sale and 516 sales in twelve months, a pace of 43 a month, and divides to 2.4 months, which matches its own stated figure. The second page counts 924 homes for sale, 231 new listings and 121 sales in 30 days. Dividing 924 by 121 gives 7.6 months, and dividing 924 by 231 gives 4.0, while the page states 5.3. The page's own months-of-supply figure is therefore not reproducible from its other numbers, and it may use a different sales window, which the page does not say.

The second page's footprint seems larger. It shows 924 homes for sale against 103 in the first report, 9.0 times as many, and 121 sales in 30 days against a pace of 43 a month, 2.8 times as many. The page does not give its boundaries, and the page carries no date that this brief could read. The first report states its source, Stellar MLS, and its update date, October 4, 2026. This brief treats the second page's figures as a wider South Tampa picture and does not combine them with the first.

The first report is not fully consistent either. It says 103 for sale in one place and 50 active listings in a later section, which may be a display limit, and it shows an average list price of $2.2 million beside a median sold price of $900,000, a ratio of 2.4, which is the sign of a few very expensive listings and not a typical home. Its pending homes range from $549,000 to $4,199,000. One report cannot describe a street with the same words as a $549,000 home and a $4.2 million one.

Both pages call for care in labeling. The first calls the market a seller's market because supply is under four months, and the second does not label it, though 5.3 months is above the four-month line the first report uses. By the first report's rule, one page describes a seller's market and the other describes a balanced one, and the difference comes from the counts and not from any change in the neighborhood.

What do the prices and clocks show?

The medians are $515,000 in the broker's article, $695,000 on the market page and $900,000 in the report. The highest is 74.8% above the lowest, computed here. At $428 per square foot, the report's $900,000 implies a typical sold home of about 2,100 square feet, and at the market page's $385.41, a $695,000 median implies about 1,800, both computed here from two figures that may not cover the same homes. The first is a twelve-month median and the second a 30-day one, so the first is steadier and the second moves with each month's mix.

The movements differ as well. The report shows one-year appreciation of 2.9% in the median price. The market page shows the 30-day median up 11.8% and the median price per square foot up 6.7%, with sales down 31.6%. A median that rises while sales fall by nearly a third is what a thinning market looks like, and it is also what a market looks like when fewer small homes sell. The page does not say which, and this brief does not choose.

The clocks are 45 days in the report, 39 on the market page, 57 to 62 in the broker's article, and a county figure that the luxury guide says rose to about 79 by late 2025. The market page's 39 compares with 26.5 a year earlier, a rise of 47.2%, computed here. The pages measure different things, from the median for a twelve-month group of closings to a month of closings to the whole county, and the county figure is not a South Tampa figure.

The broker's article adds a list-price figure. It cites a Realtor.com median listing price of $585,500 beside the Redfin median sale price of about $515,000, and the listing figure is 13.7% higher, computed here. A list median that sits above the sold median is common when the homes that list are not the homes that sell, and the article does not break the two apart. It also says the Redfin median rose 7.3% in a year, which implies a figure of about $480,000 a year earlier, computed here, and that homes in the postal area took 57 to 62 days to sell. The article is a commercial piece and its figures are cited from other pages, so this brief carries them as claims.

The negotiation figures lean one way. The report's sold-to-list ratio is 95.6%, and the market page's is 93.78%, down 1.4 points, with 6.61% of homes selling above list and 48.76% of listings dropping in price, up 10.9 points. A 6.2% gap on a $695,000 home is about $43,000, an illustration computed here from a ratio, and not a measure of any one sale. On the report's 95.6%, a $900,000 sale implies a list price near $941,000, also computed here.

Sources as cited. The periods, areas and measures differ and the figures are not directly comparable. Commercial content; not independently verified.

What about the insurance and flood claims?

A price-drop tracking site says insurance costs for Bayshore-facing homes rose 60% to 80% since 2020, and gives an example of a $1.4 million bayfront home that paid $3,200 a year in 2020 and pays $5,800 to $7,500 now. Those two statements do not match. A rise from $3,200 to $5,800 is 81%, and a rise to $7,500 is 134%, both computed here, so the example runs from just above the top of the stated range to well beyond it. The page also says the extra $2,600 to $4,300 a year reduces what a buyer can pay, which is arithmetic that checks out, since $5,800 less $3,200 is $2,600 and $7,500 less $3,200 is $4,300.

This brief does not use the tracking site's price-drop percentages. The page gives ranges of 5 to 9% on condos and 7 to 12% on larger single-family homes, but it cites no sales, and its specific home-by-home examples have no source. The page is a guide published by a site that tracks price drops and has an interest in showing them. Its direction, that insurance weighs on affordability for low-lying and waterfront homes, is also in the brokerage's luxury guide, which advises sellers to gather an elevation certificate, current flood and wind insurance information and seawall and dock records before listing.

The luxury guide adds a caution that suits this whole brief. It says aggregated neighborhood reporting in 2025 placed South Tampa medians around $700,000 to $800,000, that ultra-desirable blocks and waterfront homes often sell well above that, that small neighborhood samples make medians swing from month to month where condos and single-family homes mix, and that online medians should be treated as direction only. It says lenders require flood insurance when a property is in a Special Flood Hazard Area. It also gives a mortgage rate near 6.1% as of mid-February 2026, a figure that is stale for an October reader.

None of these pages gives a South Tampa insurance premium that this brief could verify. A seller should ask the insurer or the agent for the actual current premium and elevation certificate on the home, since a buyer will ask for them in the first week.

What does the Census say about South Tampa homes and households?

The Census postal area that includes South Tampa has 19,334 housing units, and 7,490 of them, 38.7%, were built before 1980. The 1950s are the largest early decade, with 3,288 homes, 17.0%, and the 1980s hold 3,472, 18.0%. The 2010s hold 3,927, 20.3%, and the 2020s so far 594, 3.1%, so 23.4% of homes were built since 2010. The median year built is 1986. Homes built in 1939 or earlier number 374, 1.9%.

The area leans toward ownership. Of 18,047 occupied homes, 9,697 are owner-occupied, 53.7%, and 8,350 are rented, 46.3%. Among owners, 318 moved in from 2023 on and 1,759 in 2020 to 2022, together 21.4% of owners, and 4,100 moved in during the 2010s, 42.3%. Another 3,520 owners, 36.3%, moved in before 2010. Among renters, 4,546 of 8,350 moved in from 2020 on, 54.4%. The postal area's owners are mostly people who arrived in the last fifteen years.

Vacancy is 6.7%. Of 19,334 units, 1,287 are vacant. Of those, 376 are held for seasonal use, 29.2% of the vacant units, 309 are in the other category, 207 are for rent, 163 are for sale, 148 are sold and not yet occupied and 84 are rented and not yet occupied. The 163 for-sale units are 0.8% of the stock. The survey is a five-year average, so it does not measure the 103 or 924 active listings that the pages count on a single day.

A note on seasonal use. Of the 376 vacant homes held for seasonal, recreational or occasional use, the share of all units is 1.9%, which is small beside the 29.2% share of vacant units, so seasonal homes are a minor part of the stock. That matters for the supply debate, because a postal area with few second homes will show most of its turnover in sales to year-round households. The pages do not break out second-home buyers, and this brief does not guess at them.

The Census median owner-occupied value is $479,800, with a margin of error of $23,170, which is 4.8% of the value. It is owners' own estimate over five years and not a sale price, and the postal area has 36,810 residents. It is 93.2% of the $515,000 median, 69.0% of the $695,000 median and 53.3% of the $900,000 median, all computed here. The Census median household income is $90,910 and the median rent is $1,778 a month, so the $2,675 rent in the broker's article is 50.4% higher, a ratio computed here, and the two measure different homes, since the Census figure counts every renter household over five years and the article's counts rentals on the market. Readers comparing markets can also read the Sarasota brief and the Bayshore brief.

Source: Census Reporter, American Community Survey 2020-2024 five-year estimates, tables B25034, B25038, B25004, B25077, B25003, B25002, B25064 and B19013. Percentages and ratios are this brief's arithmetic.

What should an owner ask, and what does a private sale change?

The first question is which South Tampa a number describes. A report that spans Hyde Park, Bayshore and Davis Islands, a market page with 924 listings and an article on Ballast Point and South of Gandy do not share a median. A seller should ask for closed sales on the same kind of street, of the same age and size, from the last six months, with the days to contract and the gap between the first ask and the final price.

The second question is the insurance and flood file. The luxury guide advises gathering the elevation certificate, flood and wind insurance details and seawall and dock records before listing, and the tracking site says insurance costs are cutting what buyers can pay. Both are claims, and a seller who has the real premium and elevation certificate in hand can answer a buyer's first question without waiting.

The third question is the commission, and the arithmetic is simple. Each 1% of a $515,000 price is $5,150. At 3% the figure is $15,450 and at 5% it is $25,750. At $695,000, each 1% is $6,950, 3% is $20,850 and 5% is $34,750. At $900,000, each 1% is $9,000, 3% is $27,000 and 5% is $45,000. These illustrate the size of each percentage point and are not quotes of any rate a seller would be charged. No page in this brief names a South Tampa commission rate, and the medians are not the price of any one home.

The fourth question is time and exposure. The pages show a clock from 39 to 62 days, 48.76% of listings with a price drop on one page, and a sold-to-list ratio between 93.78% and 95.6%. A public listing means showings, photographs and a price history in front of every buyer, and a price drop becomes part of the record. A private sale has no showings, and no neighbors talking about a sale.

The benefits are plain. Maison Off-Market buys luxury homes and estates directly from their owners and speaks only to sellers. A private sale has no showings. It allows closing dates that give a seller time to find a new home. It has no commission costs and no closing costs, and it avoids inspection repairs, which matters for a home from the 1950s, since 17.0% of the homes in the postal area were built in that decade, though the Census says nothing about condition. The company does not say that a private sale always beats a public listing, and in a market where one page shows 2.4 months of supply and another 5.3, an owner is right to ask what each route yields. If you would like a private, no-obligation offer for a South Tampa home, call 401-219-4207 or use the contact form on this site.

Methodology and limitations

The October 4, 2026 report is titled South Tampa and Hyde Park and shows 103 homes for sale in one place and 50 active listings in another. The market page for South Tampa carries no readable date, gives no boundaries and states a months-of-supply figure that its own counts do not reproduce. The tracking site's insurance percentages contradict its own example, and its price-drop ranges cite no sales. The luxury guide is a commercial piece with undated neighborhood data points and a mortgage rate from February. The broker's article cites Redfin and Realtor.com figures that this brief did not open. A Redfin page for a different South Tampa in Brandon was discarded as a wrong-place result, and one brokerage page could not be loaded. The Census figures are five-year estimates for a postal area, not the neighborhood.

Conclusion

The South Tampa record shows medians from $515,000 to $900,000, supply of 2.4 and 5.3 months, an insurance claim that fails its own arithmetic and a postal area where 38.7% of homes were built before 1980. The pages differ because they cover different footprints and periods, and the useful figure for an owner is the one for the home's own street, age and flood zone.