Why Do Kailua-Kona Medians Run So Far Apart? Reading the Redfin, Zillow and MLS Pages and the Census Vacancy

Why do the Kailua-Kona medians differ so much?

Start with home type. The October update's single-family median of $1,194,275 and condominium median of $570,000 are 2.1 times apart, computed here. Redfin's all-types median of $699,619 sits between them and is 41.4% below the single-family figure, computed here, because condominiums are a large part of Kona's sales. The brokerage review of first-half sales counts 198 houses and 152 condominiums, so condominiums were 43.4% of the 350 sales, computed here. A median of both types describes neither one, and a seller should read the figure for the home type, not the town.

Next is place. The June figures from one brokerage are for North Kona, a wider district than the town. It shows a single-family median of $1,228,000 for June, $1,100,000 for May and $1,225,000 for twelve months. A thin month moves the median: the $128,000 jump from May to June is 11.6%, computed here, on 38 sales. The page itself says monthly medians vary with the price ranges of the homes that close.

Window is the third. Redfin's three months to June 2026 is up 4.6%, while the October update's year to date is down 5.2% for houses and 8.1% for condominiums. A mid-year report puts houses at about $1.2 million, down 7%, and condominiums at $567,000, down 13% (Brokerage report, West Hawaii update). A quarterly note puts the second-quarter median for houses at $1,094,500, the lowest for a quarter since 2023, and the condominium median at $545,000 against $627,500 a year earlier, down 13.1%, computed here (Brokerage note, Kona sales trends). Several pages say prices are falling, one says up. Redfin's window ends in June and includes condominiums, which may explain part of the difference, and that is an inference.

Averages are not medians. The North Kona report says single-family sales volume rose from $451.7 million to $492.2 million, up 9.0%, on 197 sales against 198. Dividing, the mean sale is about $2,498,000, which is 2.04 times the $1,225,000 median, computed here. A handful of very expensive homes carry the total, which fits the page's note about resort and luxury activity. A seller whose home is not in that group should not treat volume as a sign that the typical price is rising.

Zillow's index is the odd one out. Its average home value of $874,964 is 25.1% above Redfin's $699,619, computed here, and down 0.6% while Redfin is up 4.6%. It is a modeled value of all homes as of August 31, 2026, and Redfin is a median of recorded sales to June. Neither is the price of a particular home.

Sources as cited. The windows, districts and home types differ and the figures are not directly comparable. Commercial content; not independently verified.

How fast do Kailua-Kona homes sell, and how many take price cuts?

The clocks run from 34 to 123 days. Redfin shows a median of 123 days on market, against 125 a year earlier, with the average home selling about 5% below list and going pending in around 102 days. The October update shows a median of 37 days for single-family homes, up 32.1% over a year. The North Kona report shows 83 days on average, and the June update shows 75 days for single-family homes and 34 for condominiums, down from 90 and 93 in May. Redfin's 123 days is 3.3 times the October 37, computed here. The measures differ, but the spread is large enough that a seller cannot rely on any one clock.

Price relative to list also varies. The North Kona report says sellers get about 92% of the original list price. The June update shows 94% for single-family homes and 96% for condominiums. The October update says 47% of active homes and condominiums in Kona have had a price cut. Of 153 active single-family homes, 72 have, 47.1%, and of 47 pending, 12 have, 25.5%, both computed here. The gap says that homes priced where buyers see value get a contract before a cut more often. That is the update's reading and it is a brokerage's view.

Inventory differs by type and by price. The October update counts 153 active single-family homes and 47 pending, a ratio of 3.3 to one, computed here, and 184 condominiums against 28 pending, 6.6 to one. It shows 35 active homes in the $2 million to $2.999 million range against 3 pending, about 12 to one, and 28 active against 17 pending at $800,000 to $999,999. The first-half review says houses over $2 million took 87 days on average and others 64, and condominiums took 86, 60 and 51 days from the cheapest range to the dearest. A seller at $2 million or more sells into a long line, which is the review's data and not a forecast.

The pages also disagree on whether the market is moving. The August review says Kailua-Kona single-family sales rose 50%, from 24 to 36, while condominium sales fell 45%, and that recorded deeds show about 92 condominium transactions islandwide against 30 in the MLS (Brokerage review, Kona August 2026). That gap says that many condominium sales never touch the MLS, which the review reads as family transfers and private sales. The first-half review adds that 90 houses were withdrawn or expired without relisting, 45.5% of the 198 that sold, computed here. A median of listed sales does not capture those homes.

There is one more piece of context. The first-half review says Kona is set to pass new vacation rental rules that may slow condominium sales while buyers wait to see their effects. The same review says mortgage rates were in the mid 6% range, and the October update says rates rose to 7.28% on one weekly survey and 7.57% on a daily index in early October. Those are the pages' statements, and a seller should check them against current rates. The point for owners is that the pages say financed buyers are more sensitive than cash buyers.

How much of Kailua-Kona is a second home, and what does vacancy tell a seller?

The Census gives the cleanest answer. In the postal area that includes Kailua-Kona, 5,042 of 18,967 homes are vacant, 26.6%, computed from the figures. Of them, 2,323 are held for seasonal, recreational or occasional use, which is 12.2% of all homes and 46.1% of the vacant stock, computed here. Another 1,195 are for rent, 191 for sale, 75 sold and not yet occupied, 194 rented and not yet occupied, 65 for migrant workers and 999 are vacant for other reasons. The 999 is 19.8% of the vacant stock.

That is a very different housing market from a mainland suburb. A seller's neighbors may live elsewhere much of the year, and a buyer may be a second-home buyer who pays cash. The October update says Kona has more second-home purchasers, more cash transactions and more resort property than a typical market, and that cash buyers still watch Treasury yields. The Census cannot say how many of the 2,323 seasonal homes are condominiums, but 5,859 homes, 30.9%, are in buildings of five or more units, so seasonal use and building type overlap in places. That is an inference.

The Census also shows how old the stock is. The median year built is 1988. The 1970s hold 5,239 homes, 27.6%, the largest decade, and the 1970s and 1980s together hold 8,845, 46.6%. Homes built in the 2000s number 4,672, 24.6%, and since 2010 there are 1,557, 8.2%, computed from 1,449 and 108. Homes built before 1980 are 6,562, 34.6%. The pages show the steepest declines in condominiums, and one report says condominium buyers rely more on financing than luxury house buyers, so older complexes deserve a close look at what recent sales in the same complex brought.

When did owners move in? The Census shows 267 owner households arrived in 2023 or later, 1,940 in 2020 to 2022 and 4,069 in 2010 to 2019, so 6,276 owner households, 62.7%, moved in since 2010, computed here. Owners who arrived from 2000 to 2009 number 2,014, 20.1%, and those from 1999 or earlier 1,712, 17.1%. Renters have turned over faster: of 3,923 renter households, 3,503, 89.3%, moved in since 2010. A large share of Kona owners bought within the last 16 years, so many have seen the rise and the recent softening. Their purchase prices are not in any page above, and a seller who bought in 2020 or later, 2,207 owner households or 22.1% of owners, computed here, is comparing a sale with a recent purchase and not with a long-held basis. That is a point about each owner's own numbers, and the pages say nothing about it.

One caution on the Census figures. The median owner value of $760,600, plus or minus $43,786, is a five-year average of owners' estimates for a postal area that mixes condominiums, houses and resort homes. It is 36.3% below the October single-family median of $1,194,275 and 33.4% above the condominium median of $570,000, computed here. It does not describe either type and should not be read as a price. The median household income is $95,542, and the ratio of value to income is 8.0, computed here.

Source: Census Reporter, American Community Survey 2020-2024 five-year estimates, tables B25024, B25003, B25038, B25004, B25034, B25077, B25064 and B19013. Percentages and ratios are this brief's arithmetic.

What does the Census say about building types and tenure in Kailua-Kona?

The Census postal area that includes Kailua-Kona has 18,967 housing units and 39,338 residents, so each occupied home averages 2.8 residents, computed from 39,338 and 13,925. By building type, 10,580 homes are detached houses, 55.8%, and 851 are attached, 4.5%. Buildings of two units hold 387 homes and three or four units 1,240. Buildings of five to nine units hold 1,624, ten to nineteen 2,112, twenty to forty-nine 1,107 and fifty or more 1,016. Buildings of 20 or more hold 2,123 homes, 11.2%, computed here. There are 9 mobile homes and 41 boats or vans.

Owners are the majority. Of 13,925 occupied homes, 10,002 are owned, 71.8%, and 3,923 are rented, 28.2%. The median rent is $1,673, which is the Census five-year figure for renters who live there. This brief does not use asking rents from listing pages, since they describe homes offered now and not the rents renters pay. The median household income is $95,542.

For a seller the structure matters. A detached house in an owner-occupied subdivision, a condominium in a mid-rise or low-rise complex and a resort-area second home are three products. The October update says houses are relatively balanced, with 4.7 months of supply, while condominiums, at 8.7 months, still favor buyers. The same Census postal area holds 5,859 homes in buildings of five or more units and 10,580 houses, which is 1.8 times as many houses as multifamily homes, computed here.

The Census cannot tell a seller what a particular home is worth. It can say that the postal area's median owner value is $760,600, that 34.6% of homes predate 1980, that 26.6% are vacant and that 28.2% of occupied homes are rented. Together with the pages above, it says the market is thin, seasonal in part and divided between two home types. Readers comparing markets can also read the Encino brief and the Burlingame brief.

What should an owner ask, and what does a private sale change?

The first question is which Kailua-Kona the home is in. A house on a lot in a residential subdivision, a condominium in a complex on the shore and a home in a resort community do not share a median, a buyer or a clock. A seller should ask for closed sales of the same type, in the same complex or subdivision, from the last twelve months, with the days to contract, the first ask and the final price. In a market with about 39 sales a month across all types, a seller's comparison may be a handful of units.

The second question is what a number measures. Ask whether it is a value or a sale price, a median or an average, a month or a year, houses or condominiums, Kailua-Kona or North Kona. The pages above differ on every one of those points, and a seller who reads $1,228,000 as the price of any home will overshoot the Redfin figure by 75.5% and the condominium median by 115.4%, computed here.

The third question is the cost of selling, and the arithmetic is simple. Each 1% of $570,000 is $5,700. At 3% the figure is $17,100 and at 5% it is $28,500. At $699,619, each 1% is $6,996, 3% is $20,989 and 5% is $34,981. At $1,194,275, each 1% is $11,943, 3% is $35,828 and 5% is $59,714. These illustrate the size of each percentage point and are not quotes of any rate a seller would be charged. No page in this brief names a Kailua-Kona commission rate, and the medians are not the price of any one home.

The fourth question is exposure and time. With 47% of active homes showing a price cut and Redfin's median at 123 days, a public listing can mean months of showings and a visible price history. A private sale has no showings and no neighbors talking about a sale, which matters in a community where a seller may also be a second-home owner who lives elsewhere.

The benefits are plain. Maison Off-Market buys luxury homes and estates directly from their owners and speaks only to sellers. A private sale has no showings. It allows closing dates that give a seller time to find a new home. It has no commission costs and no closing costs, and it avoids inspection repairs, which matters in a postal area where 34.6% of homes predate 1980, though the Census says nothing about the condition of any one home. The company does not say that a private sale always beats a public listing, and in a town where one page shows $570,000 and another $1,228,000, an owner is right to ask what each route yields. If you would like a private, no-obligation offer for a Kailua-Kona home, call 401-219-4207 or use the contact form on this site.

Methodology and limitations

Each page's date, title and place were read before use. The Redfin figures are for three months to June 2026 and its URL names the city under a different spelling, but the page content is for Kailua-Kona. Several pages are for North Kona, a wider district. The October update, the reports and the review are brokerage content with different windows and home types, and one reports that recorded deeds and the MLS differ widely for condominiums. The mortgage-rate and vacation-rule statements were not checked against their sources. The Census figures are five-year estimates for a postal area that is larger than the town, and the vacancy count includes second homes. Percent changes were taken as printed, and ratios and sums are this brief's arithmetic.

Conclusion

The Kailua-Kona record shows a condominium median of $570,000 beside a single-family median of $1,228,000, clocks from 34 to 123 days, and a postal area where 26.6% of homes are vacant and 12.2% are held for seasonal use. The useful number for an owner is a closed sale of the same type in the same complex or subdivision, not a median.