Did Carbondale Single-Family Prices Really Fall in a Year? Reading an August Median on Few Sales and a Year-to-Date Median

Can 15 sales cut a median by 41 percent?

The August single-family median of $1,599,000 is based on 15 sales. The median is the eighth highest of the 15. A year earlier it was $2,725,000, on 12 sales, the median of which was the average of the sixth and seventh. If two or three sales of expensive houses closed in August 2025 and none closed in August 2026, the median would fall by this much with no change in the value of any house. The report warns about this itself: activity for one month can look extreme because of the small sample.

The average shows the same thing. It fell from $3,276,667 to $1,961,667, a drop of 40.1%, almost the same as the median. When both fall by the same share, it often means that the top of the market, where a few sales at $5 million or more can lift both, was missing in the later month. The average is 22.7% above the August median in 2026, and in 2025 it was 20.2% above its median, so the shape of the sales did not change much. The level did.

The year-to-date figures are steadier, because they hold 79 sales instead of 15. The median fell from $1,920,000 to $1,650,000, a drop of $270,000 or 14.1%, and the average from $2,650,488 to $2,191,925, a drop of 17.3%. Sales fell 7.1%, from 85 to 79. This is the better measure of the single-family market. It says that a typical sale in 2026 is about one seventh cheaper than in 2025, with fewer buyers.

Neither measure says what an individual house is worth. The price a house brings depends on the lot, the view, the water rights, the distance to the river and the age of the building, and the reports give none of these. What the figures do show is the direction: down for single-family houses, and the sellers who got the 2025 prices were selling into a stronger market.

Source: Aspen and Glenwood Springs MLS report as cited. The 22.7%, 20.2%, $270,000 and one seventh figures are this brief's arithmetic from the stated figures. The reading of the missing top sales is this brief's inference and is not a statement of the report. Commercial content; not independently verified.

Why do condominiums move the other way?

The townhouse and condominium table shows rises where the single-family table shows falls. The August median is $920,000, up 13.4% from $811,313, and the year-to-date median is $895,000, up 2.6%. Sales are up as well, from 27 to 39 year to date (44.4%), and homes for sale are down 46.2%, from 26 to 14. A segment with more sales and fewer listings is, on those numbers, a tightening one.

The sample is smaller still. The August 2025 median came from 2 sales and the August 2026 median from 7. A 13.4% rise on 2 sales is a rise in the price of two homes. The year-to-date rise of 2.6% on 39 sales, against 27, is the more reliable figure, and it is small. The honest reading is that condominium prices are flat to slightly higher while single-family prices fell.

The time to sell is longer for condominiums than the rise would suggest. Days on market until sale were 103 in August, up 56.1% from 66, and 116 for the year, up 19.6% from 97. A segment with rising prices and rising waits is one where sellers are holding firm and buyers are taking their time. The percent of list price received was 96.3% in August and 97.2% year to date, higher than the single-family 95.5% and 95.7%, so condominium sellers give up less.

For an owner, the comparison matters because the two segments call for different expectations. A single-family seller should plan for a wait of about four months and a sale about 4% under the ask. A condominium seller can expect a little better on both, with a smaller group of buyers to find. Both should know that the figures are of the Carbondale area as the MLS defines it, which may not be the boundary of their street.

Source: Aspen and Glenwood Springs MLS report as cited. The remarks on sellers' firmness and on expectations are this brief's reasoning and not statements of the report. Commercial content; not independently verified.

Do the three pages describe the same Carbondale?

Realtor.com's sold median of $1,250,000 is 24.2% below the MLS year-to-date single-family median of $1,650,000. RealtyTrac's $1.4 million is 15.2% below it. Both are lower than the MLS figure, and both include condominiums, which the MLS reports in a separate table at about $895,000. A median across houses and condominiums is lower than a median across houses alone, so the gap is expected. It does not mean the pages disagree about houses.

The counts are harder to square. The MLS report counts 84 single-family homes for sale in August and 14 townhouses and condominiums, 98 in all. Realtor.com counted 112 homes for sale in April. RealtyTrac counts 337 homes for sale in September, 3.4 times the MLS total, and says that its homes for sale rose 52.49% in a year. The MLS report says that single-family inventory rose 15.1% and condominium inventory fell 46.2%. A rise of 52% and a rise of 15% cannot describe the same group of homes.

The time to sell is the third split. The MLS report gives 116 days in August and 133 year to date for houses. Realtor.com gives a median of 67 days in April, up 15.52% on the year. The two dates are four months apart, and the spring is a faster season than late summer, but a difference of 50 to 66 days is more than the season explains. Realtor.com measures the days a listing has been active, the MLS measures the days until sale, and these differ for homes that were cut and relisted.

The price per square foot gives one more check. Realtor.com has $840 for listings. RealtyTrac gives $986 per square foot for its median estimated value of $1,693,569. At $840, the listing median of $2,595,000 is a house of about 3,090 square feet. At $986, the estimated value is a house of about 1,720 square feet. The pages are not describing houses of the same size.

Source: The three pages as cited. The 24.2%, 15.2%, 3.4, 3,090 and 1,720 square foot figures are this brief's arithmetic. The explanation of the gaps is this brief's reasoning and not a statement of any page. Commercial content; not independently verified.

Does the neighborhood table add up to 112?

The Realtor.com page lists homes for sale in twelve named areas. They are Aspen Glen 28, Lakota Canyon Ranch 24, River Valley Ranch 23, Los Amigos Ranch 16, Buckhorn Valley 8, Cemetery Lane 7, Aspen Highlands 3, Aspen Junction 3, Meadowood 3, Starwood 2, White Horse Springs 2 and Riverside Meadows 1. The sum is 120. The headline count is 112. The table holds 8 more homes than the town, or 107% of it.

The prices in the table are spread widely. Aspen Glen has a median listing price of $4,122,500 and $1,032 per square foot. River Valley Ranch has $3,400,000 and $899. Lakota Canyon Ranch has $834,000 and $353. The top is 4.9 times the bottom. The town's median listing price of $2,595,000 sits between them, which shows how much of the stock lies at either end.

The waits differ even more. River Valley Ranch shows a median of 34 days, down 46.03% on the year, and Lakota Canyon Ranch 39. Aspen Glen shows 159, up 174.14% on the year, and 28 homes for sale, down 32.14%. The most expensive area has the longest wait by far, and the shortest waits belong to the middle and the lower end. A seller in Aspen Glen should read the 159 days and not the town's 67.

The renters in the table are a separate story. Cemetery Lane has 31 rentals against 7 homes for sale, and its median monthly rental price is $55,000. That is not a typical rent. It is probably a handful of high-end rentals, and it pulls the town's median rent to $13,000 a month, which is 6.1 times the Census median gross rent of $2,119.

Source: Realtor.com page and U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020-2024, as cited. The sum of 120, the 8 homes, 107%, 4.9 and 6.1 figures are this brief's arithmetic. Only three of the twelve named areas have published prices. The remark on the Cemetery Lane rent is this brief's inference. Commercial content; not independently verified.

What does the Census say about owners and age?

The postal area that includes Carbondale has 15,067 residents and 6,953 housing units, of which 6,362 are occupied. Owners hold 4,414 of them, 69.4%, and renters 1,948, 30.6%. The 591 vacant homes are 8.5% of the stock. The median household income is $109,661 and the owner-estimated median home value is $913,300, with a margin of error of $44,063, or 4.8%.

Against the Census value, the MLS year-to-date single-family median is 1.81 times as high, and the Realtor.com listing median 2.84 times. The MLS median is 15.0 times the median income. That is a wide gap, and it says that the market for houses is largely a market for buyers who are not living on a local income. The Census median gross rent is $2,119, against Realtor.com's $13,000, a median taken over 27 listings.

The stock was built mostly in three decades. Homes from the 1990s number 1,963, 28.2%, from the 2000s 1,292, 18.6%, and from the 1970s 1,278, 18.4%. Homes from 1980 to 1989 add 1,023, 14.7%. Homes built before 1980 number 1,827, 26.3%, and homes built since 2000 number 2,140, 30.8%. The median year built is 1993.

The 190 homes built in 1939 or earlier, 2.7% of the stock, are the oldest part of town. Few owners of such homes would list them on the same terms as a house in a ranch or valley community built in the 2000s, and the MLS report does not separate them. A seller of an old house in the center should look for sales of similar houses, not for the median of a report that is mostly about newer, larger ones.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2020-2024, the Aspen and Glenwood Springs MLS report and Realtor.com as cited. Multiples, shares and gaps are this brief's arithmetic. The remark on buyers and local income is this brief's reasoning and not a statement of the Census.

What does a regional series add, and what should an owner ask?

The Glenwood Springs area series from Realtor.com, as the page showed it, ends in December 2024, so it is about twenty months older than the reports above. It is the only regional series available for this area, and it is no guide to 2026. In it, the median days on market rose from 75 in August 2024 to 114 in November and 102 in December (Realtor.com, days on market). Active listings fell from 692 in August to 595 in December (Realtor.com, active listings), a drop of 14.0%.

New listings were 148 in August 2024 and 120 in December (Realtor.com, new listings). Homes with a price cut fell from 168 in August to 40 in December (Realtor.com, price reduced listings). The regional median listing price rose from $1,900,000 in August to $2,174,585 in December (Realtor.com, median listing price), a rise of 14.4%. What this shows is a wait that lengthened by 27 days in four months in the fall of 2024, which is the same pattern as in 2026.

An owner can test any offer, public or private, with plain questions. What is the price, and is any part of it conditional on an inspection, a loan or the sale of another home? What will I take home after every charge? When will the sale close, and can that date move? Who pays for the repairs a buyer asks for after an inspection?

For a house in this valley there are more. What are the homeowners association dues, and what do they cover in a ranch or valley community? What are the age and condition of the roof, the heating and the septic or sewer connection? What do wildfire, hail and snow loads do to insurance? If the sale takes four months or more, how much does an owner pay in taxes, insurance, heating and upkeep before it closes? Readers comparing markets can also read the Louisville brief and the Hilltop brief.

Source: Realtor.com series published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis as cited, last observation December 2024. The 14.0%, 14.4% and 27 day figures are this brief's arithmetic. The questions are this brief's general reasoning and not statements of any source.

What does a private sale change?

Maison Off-Market buys homes directly from their owners. It does not list a home, hold showings or put a home on a public listing. For a Carbondale owner, the five benefits are plain. There are no showings and no neighbors talking about the sale. The closing date can be flexible, which gives time to find a new home. There are no commission costs and no closing costs for the seller, and there are no inspections and repairs.

A little arithmetic shows what that is worth. Each 1% of a $1,650,000 sale is $16,500. A seller who gives up 3% gives up $49,500, and one who gives up 5% gives up $82,500. At the Realtor.com listing median of $2,595,000, each 1% is $25,950. This brief does not claim that those are the costs of any sale, since the real figures depend on the agreement the seller signs. It shows how quickly a percentage becomes a sum.

The benefit of a flexible date matters in a market that sells in about 133 days. A seller who lists in the fall may carry a house through a winter of heating and snow removal before a buyer appears. A seller who agrees a closing date in advance avoids that carrying cost. The trade is that a direct offer may differ from what a public sale could bring, and each owner can weigh the two.

Maison Off-Market speaks only to sellers. An owner who wants to know what a direct offer would look like can use the contact form below, or call 401-219-4207, and ask for a figure with no showings, no listing and no obligation.

Source: Maison Off-Market. The fee figures are this brief's arithmetic and not claims about any sale.

Methodology and limitations

Sales, prices, days on market, inventory and months of supply come from the Aspen and Glenwood Springs MLS report for Carbondale current as of September 3, 2026. Listing prices, rentals and the neighborhood table come from a national listing site page with key indicators as of April 2026. A third page supplies sold prices, homes for sale and homes sold for September 2026. They cover different months and different homes and are not independently verified.

Age, tenure, vacancy, income, rent and owner-estimated value come from the American Community Survey 2020-2024 five-year estimates for the postal-code area that includes Carbondale. Shares are calculated from published counts, and owner-estimated value carries a margin of error.

Days on market, active and new listings, median listing price and price reduced counts are Realtor.com series published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis for the Glenwood Springs metropolitan area. The series as read ends in December 2024 and describes the region and not the town. The brief makes no forecast and values no home.

Conclusion

The Carbondale record shows a single-family median down 41% in one month on 15 sales and down 14% over the year on 79, a condominium median that rose slightly, and three pages that disagree on prices, counts and waits. The year-to-date figures are the steadier guide, and they point to a slower market with lower house prices.

It does not fix a price for any one home. The choice between a public listing and a private sale comes down to whether an owner would rather wait four months or more for a bid, with showings and inspections, or take privacy, a flexible closing date, no commission, no closing costs and no inspections or repairs. To see what a direct offer would look like for your home, use the contact form below or call 401-219-4207.